Phillies vs. Braves Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Friday, Sept. 11
The Phillies and Braves open their final head-to-head series of the season tonight. My Phillies vs. Braves prediction expects Atlanta to win by margin, expanding its four-game lead over second-place Philadelphia in the NL East.
Philadelphia sends out Aaron Nola, while my MLB picks back Atlanta starter Chris Sale in the first game of this three-game set. First pitch from Truist Park in Atlanta is set for 7:15 p.m. ET (MLB.TV), with the Braves entering as a -190 betting favorite.
βΎ Phillies vs. Braves picks & odds today
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| βΎ Pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Braves -1.5 (+119 via DraftKings) | 1.68u β 2u | Nola ranks in the 5th percentile in pitching run value, while Sale ranks in the 98th percentile in the same stat. |
| Bryce Harper Under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-165 via BetMGM) | 1.65u β 1u | Harper is slashing just .224/.340/.332 against left-handed pitching. |
Total wagered: 3.33 units | Max profit: 3 units
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π° Phillies vs. Braves prediction & best bet
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
Braves -1.5 (+119)
While I'm usually not a fan of taking home favorites on the run line (since they probably won't play the bottom of the ninth), this pitching matchup will likely be too much for the Phillies to overcome. Nola ranks in the fifth percentile in pitching run value, while Sale ranks in the 98th percentile in the same stat.
Add in that the Braves have won by multiple runs in each of Sale's three starts against Philadelphia this season, and we have a strong chance to cover. Braves -1.5 (+119) is the best line available among the top MLB betting sites.
💵 More MLB expert picks today
Looking for more? Dive into my best NRFI bets today or Matt MacKay's home run predictions.
π₯ Best Phillies vs. Braves player prop bet
Bryce Harper Under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-165)
Not only has Harper gone under this line in four of his last five games, but he also has a tough pitching matchup today.
Harper is slashing just .224/.340/.332 against left-handed pitching this season and is just 2-for-18 with 9 K's in his career against Sale. He has zero extra-base hits against the Braves left-hander, along with no walks or RBIs.
With a 55% chance of rain tonight in Atlanta - and Sale pitching at home - this should be a long night for Harper. His Under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-165) at BetMGM is the best line available among the top sports betting sites.
📡 SBR Edge: Lefty-Lefty Fastballs
Sale throws fastballs 60.1% of the time against left-handed hitters, his most-used pitch type. Meanwhile, Harper has just a .224 expected batting average against fastballs from left-handed pitchers.
π Live Phillies vs. Braves odds
π Phillies vs. Braves injuries
πΊ How to watch Phillies vs. Braves
- Date: Friday, Sept. 11
- First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Truist Park (Atlanta)
- TV: MLB.TV
- Phillies starter: Aaron Nola (6-10, 4.76 ERA)
- Braves starter: Chris Sale (14-9, 2.10 ERA)
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