Best NRFI Bets Today: MLB No Run First Inning Picks for Friday, Sept. 11
📡 SBR Edge: Back Ray, Fade Kelly
My best NRFI bets today include Padres vs. Giants NRFI (-125) and Rangers vs. Diamondbacks YRFI (-118). Padres starter Robbie Ray hasn't allowed a first-inning run in any of his six starts for San Diego. Meanwhile, Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly ranks in the third percentile in barrel rate, making him a huge liability for NRFI bettors.
⚾ Best NRFI bets today: Sept. 11
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| ⚾ NRFI pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Padres vs. Giants NRFI (-125 via DraftKings) | 2.5u → 2u | Ray hasn't allowed a first-inning run in any of his 6 starts for the Padres. |
| Rangers vs. Diamondbacks YRFI (-118 via FanDuel) | 1.18u → 1u | Kelly ranks in the 3rd percentile in barrel rate, meaning he's extremely vulnerable to hard, elevated contact. |
Total wagered: 3.68 units | Max profit: 3 units
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💰 Best NRFI bet today
Padres vs. Giants NRFI (10:15 p.m. ET)
- Robbie Ray (3.39 ERA) vs. Anthony Molina (2.79 ERA)
- NRFI records: Padres (89-57) vs. Giants (72-75)
It was a Thursday night in July. Ray was pitching for the Giants and led them to a 4-1 victory over the Padres.
A little over a week later, Ray was pitching for San Diego, and he hasn't allowed a first-inning run since putting on a Padres uniform. That's six straight starts without giving up a first-inning run, and that doesn't even include his four-game streak of scoreless first innings with San Francisco.
Giants opener Anthony Molina doesn't hurt this bet, either, as opposing hitters are batting just .143 against him in the first inning.
💵 First-Inning Ray
Opposing hitters are slashing just .219/.299/.344 against Ray in the first inning, with just eight earned runs allowed across 27 games.
🔥 More NRFI picks today
Rangers vs. Diamondbacks YRFI (9:40 p.m. ET)
- Kumar Rocker (4.61 ERA) vs. Merrill Kelly (5.06 ERA)
- NRFI records: Rangers (60-87) vs. Diamondbacks (68-79)
I like to refer to the Diamondbacks' starter today as "Barrel" Kelly.
He ranks in the third percentile in barrel rate, meaning he's extremely vulnerable to allowing hard, elevated contact. And who is he likely to face at the top of the order? Joc Pederson and Corey Seager, who rank in the 73rd and 95th percentiles in barrel rate, respectively.
Rangers starter Kumar Rocker hasn't been great either, with an 8.63 ERA in the first inning this season. Rangers vs. Diamondbacks YRFI (-118) at FanDuel is the best line available among the top sports betting apps.
⚾️ More MLB props today
Looking for more? Dive into Matt MacKay's Mets vs. Yankees prediction or his home run predictions today.
❓ NRFI betting FAQ
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
What does NRFI mean in baseball betting?
NRFI stands for "No Run First Inning." It's a popular MLB bet that neither team will score in the first inning of a game, and the bet settles after just six outs (three per half-inning).
What does YRFI mean?
YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning" - the opposite of a NRFI. This MLB prop bet cashes if there's at least one run by either team in the first inning.
What should I look for when betting NRFIs?
Each team's starting pitcher is the biggest factor in cashing a NRFI bet, but you should also focus on each team's NRFI records (home vs. away) and each lineup's first-inning tendencies. Recent form can also play a bigger role than full-season numbers.
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