MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Friday, Sept. 11
Friday's MLB slate is fully loaded with 15 games, providing the maximum number of players for my latest home run predictions today. We're coming off a win with Joc Pederson's home run at +500 odds, which salvaged Thursday's picks.
For Friday's MLB home run picks, I'm starting with Hunter Goodman. The Rockies catcher crushes baseballs, ranked 95th in barrel percentage (15.1) this season. Goodman leads Colorado with a whopping 37 home runs ahead of tonight's road game against Framber Valdez at Comerica Park.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Sept. 11
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Goodman (+425 via bet365) | 0.25u β 1.06u | Goodman ranks in the 95th percentile for barrel rate (15.1) in 2026. |
| Pete Alonso (+328 via DraftKings) | 0.31u β 1.01u | 25 of Alonso's 34 home runs have been recorded against right-handed pitchers. |
| Randy Arozarena (+356 via DraftKings) | 0.30u β 1.06u | 13 of Arozarena's 22 home runs have been logged on the road, and now, he gets soft dimensions at a hitter-friendly ballpark. |
Total wagered: 0.86 units | Max profit: 3.13 units
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Hunter Goodman(+425)
Aside from Goodman's elite barrel rate (15.1) placing him in the top five percent of hitters in 2026, he's also in the 78th percentile in xSLG (.451) and the 70th percentile for hard-hit rate (44.6) this season.
Valdez is a southpaw, creating a good matchup for Goodman as a right-handed hitter. The Tigers' starter is ranked in the bottom 16th percentile for hard-hit rate (42.7) allowed.
In just 80 at bats, Goodman has logged 8 home runs against lefties on the road this year.
Grab Goodman's home run prop at +425 odds on bet365.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Valdez Meatballs
Valdez is allowing 90.1 mph for his avg exit velo in 2026, so paired with a woeful 42.7 hard-hit percentage allowed, Goodman should be able to find the bleachers with quality contact at the plate.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Pete Alonso (+328)
Baltimore has seen quite a return on investment from Pete Alonso this season. The Orioles' 1B has delivered plenty of home runs (34) in 2026, including 25 against right-handed pitching.
Tonight, Alonso draws a matchup against Blue Jays veteran Max Scherzer. Scherzer sits at the 20th percentile in barrel rate (9.2), while Alonso has mashed 11 of 16 home runs on the road against righties.
Alonso has recorded a home run in his previous two starts for the Orioles. Even if the roof is open, wind is blowing 4.9 mph into left center field, adding a boost to Alonso's home run ability.
Bet on Alonso's home run prop at +328 odds on DraftKings.
- Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Randy Arozarena (+356)
Arozarena could go the distance in his first at-bat against a bad pitcher at a hitter-friendly ballpark tonight. The Mariners' lead-off hitter has 13 of his 22 home runs on the road in 2026.
Athletics' starting pitcher, Jeffrey Springs, has been awful lately. He's allowed 6 home runs in his last 5 starts, while ranked in the 19th percentile for barrel rate (9.3).
Arozarena has 90.5 on his avg exit velo in 2026, while mashing a homer at Sutter Health Park back in May. Now, he's got a plus matchup with ideal hitting dimensions.
Stay on DraftKings to bet on Arozarena's home run prop at +356 odds.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Hunter Goodman (+425)
- Pete Alonso (+328)
- Randy Arozarena (+356)
Best odds: +10146 via FanDuel (0.10u -> 10.14u)
Related Articles
