Mets vs. Yankees Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Tonight, Sept. 11

The Subway Series opens on the 25th anniversary of the 9/11 tragedy tonight, so expect emotions to be running high when the New York Mets take on the New York Yankees. My Mets vs. Yankees prediction includes a run total, two player props, and a two-leg SGP for tonight's MLB picks. 

The Yankees comfortably occupy the second Wild Card seed in the American League playoff race. The Mets are still 10 games out of the National League Wild Card, but they have logged four straight wins.  Tonight's starting pitchers will be a showdown between Nolan McLean and Carlos Rodon. 

The first pitch will be thrown out at 7:05 p.m. ET from Yankee Stadium (Bronx, N.Y.), streaming on ESPN Unlimited and MLB.TV. The Yankees are -145 betting favorites, with both teams entering on multi-game winning streaks. 

⚾ Mets vs. Yankees picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds;

Total wagered: 6.04 units | Max profit: 5.31 units

🏆 Who will win Mets vs. Yankees?

One of these teams will have its winning streak snapped tonight. The Mets are 2-1 SU in this series in 2026, so with 76 percent of public action on the Yankees, I expect the Mets to record a 3-1 win. 

Score prediction: Mets 3, Yankees 1

💰 Mets vs. Yankees prediction & best bet

Under 8.0 (-102)

Each team has a quality pitcher starting on the mound for tonight's matchup. McLean has been very good in 2026, posting a 3.06 ERA and allowing only two earned in his previous three appearances. 

Rodon has been equally effective. The Yankees' southpaw has held his last four opponents to just five earned runs combined since returning from injury on August 18th. 

Both of these lineups rank among the bottom-10 in the MLB for batting average. The Mets are also 24th in OPS (.703). 

Go to BetMGM and bet Under 8.0 total runs at -102 odds. 

🔥 Best Mets vs. Yankees player prop bet

Greg Lombard Jr. Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-174)

Greg Lombard Jr. has taken over the Yankees' SS position, with mixed results at the plate. The 21-year-old has gone Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs in 3 of his last 5 starts for the Yankees.

Lombard Jr. is going to have a tough assignment against McLean tonight. The Mets' starter ranks 90th in pitching run value (16) this season and sits in the 77th percentile for xBA (.218) and strikeout rate (26.7). 

He's batting 6th in the Yankees lineup, ahead of Ryan McMahon, who has only recorded two hits in his last four starts. 7.3 mph winds are blowing sideways into right field, further complicating hitting conditions for Lombard Jr. 

Lay the juice and fade Greg Lombard Jr. with Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs at -174 odds on DraftKings. 

💣 Mets vs. Yankees home run prediction

Aaron Judge to hit a home run (+260)

It's time for all to rise and witness Aaron Judge's home run ability on Friday night. The Yankees' star slugger has yet to find the bleachers since returning from a long stint in the IL. However, Judge tops out with a 21.1 barrel percentage and 57.1 hard-hit rate.

Last season, 20 of Judge's 26 home runs at Yankee Stadium came against right-handed pitching. McLean, a right-handed pitcher, has surrendered 15 home runs in 2026.

Since Judge has not hit a home run in either of his two starts since making a return, oddsmakers have his home run prop set at fairly long odds compared to the power hitter's normal price. 

Head to FanDuel and bet on Judge to hit his 18th home run of the season at +260 odds. 

🚀 Mets vs. Yankees same-game parlay

Rodon has cashed a NRFI in three of his last four starts, while McLean has allowed just 1 earned run in the 1st inning in his previous five starts. Extra innings have only happened once in the last 15 combined games played by these opponents. 

💡 How I'm betting Mets vs. Yankees: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

For tonight's 9/11 Memorial Subway Series opener, I'm staking 7.04 units on four wagers. This would net 6.31 units of total profit. 

My biggest wager is on Greg Lombard Jr. to go Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs, staking 3.5 units to win 2.01 units of profit. My other multi-unit play is on Under 8.0, staking 2.04 units to win another 2 units of profit.

A 0.50 unit wager on Aaron Judge's home run prop nets 1.3 units of profit. Then, 1 final unit on a NRFI/Extra Innings: No SGP will win 1 unit of profit at even odds. 

📊 Live Mets vs. Yankees odds

Since opening, the Yankees have moved a bit from -145 to -137 betting favorites. The run total has bounced between 8.0 and 7.5. 

74 percent of public money is on the Yankees moneyline, including 76 percent of run line (-1.5) bets. 65 percent of bets are on Over 8.0. 

📈 Mets vs. Yankees betting trends

🚑 Mets vs. Yankees injuries

📺 How to watch Mets vs. Yankees

• Date: Friday, Sept. 11
• First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, N.Y.)
• Streaming: ESPN Unlimited, MLB.TV
• Mets starter: Nolan McLean (11-8, 3.06 ERA)
• Yankees starter: Carlos Rodon (5-3, 3.09 ERA)