Spanish Grand Prix Odds, Favorites 2026: F1 Picks & Best Bets
The F1 season is on to Madrid for Sunday’s Spanish Grand Prix (9 a.m. ET, ESPN), with Circuito de Madring debuting. The highlight of the new track is La Monumental, a 550-metre-long corner pitched at the maximum 24% angle.
On the back of Kimi Antonelli’s miraculous comeback victory in Italy, I explore the Spanish Grand Prix odds and favorites.
The 19-year-old Italian is unsurprisingly the betting favorite after his heroic and stunning victory, with Lando Norris and George Russell receiving the second and third-shortest odds.
📊 Spanish Grand Prix odds 2026
Top Spanish Grand Prix odds to win Sunday's race, via BetMGM; subject to change.
| Driver | American Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kimi Antonelli | +200 | 33.33% | $20 |
| Lando Norris | +300 | 25% | $30 |
| George Russell | +350 | 22.22% | $35 |
| Charles Leclerc | +800 | 11.11% | $80 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +900 | 12.5% | $70 |
| Max Verstappen | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| Oscar Piastri | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| Liam Lawson | +10000 | 0.99% | $1,000 |
All other drivers are trading at +50000 or longer.
🏁 Early pick to win Spanish Grand Prix
Kimi Antonelli (+200)
It’s almost impossible not to back the 19-year-old after he won the Italian GP, securing the second-greatest GP comeback in the sport’s history, trumped only by John Watson’s win from 22nd in the 1983 USA West Grand Prix.
With everyone on a level playing field, having never raced the Madring, Antonelli’s confidence and aura of invincibility after such a miraculous display provide a notable advantage.
It also helps that his Mercedes W17 is undeniably the best on the grid, putting Antonelli’s chances of winning above the rest of the field.
💰 Early picks & best bets for Spanish Grand Prix
Here's a look at the best alternatives on the board looking ahead to Sunday's race:
Lando Norris (+300)
Norris blamed the brakes on his MCL40 for not finishing higher than eighth place in qualifying at the Italian GP.
That lower finish prevented the McLaren driver from challenging Mercedes at the top of the grid. The Brit had to settle for fourth place behind Max Verstappen and the two Mercedes drivers.
Norris won the previous two races and is one of the most in-form drivers. The MCL40 is the second-best-performing car, with only Mercedes’ W17 consistently better.
I am concerned about Norris’ ability to outperform and outmaneuver more experienced, technically superior competitors like Lewis Hamilton and Verstappen, but his car gives him a decisive edge I can’t overlook.
Max Verstappen (+1100)
Ferrari is the only team to have experienced Madring, with Hamilton and Charles Leclerc doing a filming day on the new track in July. While that has to be seen as an advantage no matter how you slice it, Ferrari’s recent communication and strategic errors are well-documented, and I’m not convinced they can get it right in Madrid.
Cue Verstappen, arguably the most technically gifted driver on the circuit. He’s also one of the most experienced and poised, which will help on a course expected to test a wide range of drivers’ skills.
Verstappen overcame his car’s deficiencies at Monza to secure third place. While winning at Madring is improbable, his ability to elicit the best from the RB22 puts him in the running.
And his +1100 odds make the Dutchman the best outsider bet among the contenders.
George Russell (+350)
Had it not been for the Lap 28 Virtual Safety Car at the Italian GP, Russell would have won his third race of the season. While that is true, it feels like I’ve been making excuses for Russell all season.
He hasn't come anywhere close to rivaling his teammates’ indomitable form for most of the 2026 season, and it will take an uncharacteristic performance from both Mercedes drivers to see the Brit win at Madring.
Russell has, however, benefited recently from the W17’s superiority.
It’s why he has the third-shortest odds entering the pre-race festivities. There’s also his recent form to consider, which has seen him finish third or better in five of the previous seven races.
🏆 Past Spanish Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Oscar Piastri | McLaren-Mercedes |
| 2024 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-Honda RBPT |
| 2023 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-RBPT |
| 2022 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-RBPT |
| 2021 | Lewis Hamilton | McLaren |
| 2020 | Lewis Hamilton | McLaren |
| 2019 | Lewis Hamilton | McLaren |
| 2018 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2017 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2016 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-TAG Heuer |
🗓️ 2026 Spanish Grand Prix schedule
- Practice 1: Friday, Sept. 11 @ 7:30 a.m. ET
- Practice 2: Friday, Sept. 11 @ 11 a.m. ET
- Practice 3: Saturday, Sept. 12 @ 6:30 a.m. ET
- Qualifying: Saturday, Sept. 12 @ 10 a.m. ET
- Race: Sunday, Sept. 13 @ 9 a.m. ET
📺 How to watch 2026 Spanish Grand Prix
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 13
- Time: 9 a.m. ET
- Location: Circuito de Madring (Madrid, Spain)
- How to watch: ESPN
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