US Open Predictions 2026: Round of 16 Picks, Best Bets at Flushing Meadows

Several top seeds have been eliminated in both the Men’s and Women’s draws as the US Open Round of 16 continues on Monday at Flushing Meadows, and my US Open Round of 16 best bets highlight one of those surprise matchups between two unseeded players in Arthur Gea and Botic van de Zandschulp.

I also add my top upset on the Men’s side to my four-pack of US Open tennis picks, and balance my portfolio with my best two picks from the Women’s draw among the four matches to be played.

🎾 US Open Round of 16 predictions 

For more tennis coverage, see more sports picks and betting analysis.

Total wagered: 4 units | Max profit: 3.97 units

🎯 Iga Swiatek to beat Zheng Qinwen in straight sets (-163) 

Swiatek was in great form entering this tournament, and her +550 odds (third-shortest on the Women’s side) were completely justified. Swiatek won in Montreal and was a semifinalist in Cincinnati, and she isn’t one of the three women (Rybakina, Jessica Pegula, or Coco Gauff) who can take the No. 1 ranking from Aryna Sabalenka no matter how she fares in this tournament. So while the others deal with that pressure, I expect Swiatek to play more freely.

Swiatek hasn’t dropped a set yet, and has won 37 sets by 6-0 or 6-1 margins in the past year (nine more than any other player entering this tournament). She won five matches against top-20 players in a 10-1 stretch after Wimbledon, and should be too much for Zheng today.

Time: 11 a.m. ET

🎯 Noami Osaka Over 12.5 total games won vs. Elena Rybakina (+105) 

Naomi Osaka was my pre-tournament women’s champion, but that was before the draw’s came out and she found herself in the most loaded quarter and needing to upset the No. 2 seed in the Round of 16 just to advance. I am not backing off that prediction despite th tough draw, but there are many ways Osaka can cash this Over, even in a straight-set victory.

Osaka’s only straight set victory to this point required two tiebreaks, otherwise she won her last two matches in three sets. DraftKings has 48.78% implied odds that this match will go the distance, so Osaka would only need anywhere from six to seven games won combined in the other two sets if she takes at least one set. 

Osaka won 14 games in their only head-to-head matchup, a three-set loss on hard courts in Toronto just one month ago.

Time: 2:30 p.m. ET  

🎯 Karen Khachanov ML vs. Learner Tien (+149)

No. 14 seed Learner Tien is on his way to a top-10 ranking, and the countryman should have the overwhelming crowd support in this matchup. But Khachanov has displayed the form that earned him a semifinal appearance at the US Open in 2022, dropping just one set to this point (a tiebreak loss to No. 3 seed Felix Auger-Aliassime).

Khachanov had an 83% career service hold rate at Flushing Meadows prior to being broken just once (and surrendering four total break point opportunities) in a straight set win over Benjamin Bonzi on Saturday. He should take confidence from his win over Auger-Aliassime, his second win over a top-10 player in the last seven years.

Time: 4 p.m. ET    

🎯 Arthur Gea vs. Botic van de Zandschulp Over 37.5 games (-122)

French men seem to have a way of advancing through Grand Slams while overcoming “lucky loser” tags. Gea became the latest to do so, as he is the ninth lucky loser to reach this far in a Major in the Open Era, and four of the last five have been French.

Gea endured an epic five-set win over Michael Zheng to become the second men’s singles lucky loser to reach this far at a US Open. But I’m not worried about fatigue, as he got stronger as the match wore on, losing only five games over the final two sets.

van de Zandschulp was broken seven times in his own five-set marathon win over Zizou Bergs, and Gea should steal a set or two with the Dutch’s most likely path to set wins coming via tiebreaks (he has won the maximum seven games in four of his nine set victories).

There may not be a better value play on the day's slate, as bet365 has the O/U of games for this match set at 40.5, with similar juice (-120) on each side.

Time: 4:30 p.m. ET