Italian Grand Prix Predictions, Odds 2026: Expert F1 Picks for Sunday's Race
I’m backing Lando Norris in my Italian Grand Prix predictions, as I believe his sizzling form, along with the car’s enhanced performance, will facilitate his third straight win. Norris is the betting favorite for Sunday’s race after Mercedes opted to take a penalty, which will see Kimi Antonelli start at the back of the grid.
However, he will face stiff competition from Ferrari and Mercedes’ unpenalized driver, George Russell.
The race from Monza starts at 9 a.m. ET (ESPN).
📊 Italian Grand Prix odds 2026
Top Italian Grand Prix odds to win Sunday's race, via BetMGM; subject to change.
| Driver | American Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lando Norris | +150 | 40% | $15 |
| George Russell | +220 | 31.25% | $22 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +700 | 12.5% | $70 |
| Charles Leclerc | +700 | 12.5% | $80 |
| Kimi Antonelli | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| Max Verstappen | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| Oscar Piastri | +1800 | 5.26% | $180 |
All other drivers are trading at +25000 or longer.
💰 Italian Grand Prix predictions, best bets
All picks were made based on odds before the practice sessions and qualifying.
| 💰 Bet | ⚖️ Units | 🧠 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| To win race: Lando Norris (+175) | 1u -> 1.75u | McLaren is on fire, and Norris has won two in a row. |
| Kimi Antonelli to finish top 2 in qualifying (+105) | 1u -> 1.05u | The W17 is tailor-suited for this track, and Antonelli has no pressure in qualifying. |
| George Russell to finish in the top 3 (-190) | 2u -> 1.05u | Russell has been much better recently, finishing on the podium in four of the previous six races. |
Total wagered: 4 units | Max profit: 2.85 units
🏆 Pick to win Italian Grand Prix: Lando Norris
McLaren is on the rise, with Norris securing victories in the previous two races. What stands out most, though, is the marked improvements the team has made on the MCL40.
That positive trajectory will continue at Monza, with McLaren expected to reduce the car’s drag even more for the world’s fastest F1 course.
Norris, meanwhile, has shown excellent mastery of the car, and his confidence is soaring.
Ferrari’s car isn’t renowned for being the best on tracks with long straightaways, which leaves Mercedes' Russell as the biggest threat to Norris’ quest to win three successive races. I favor Norris, albeit marginally.
🏎️ Kimi Antonelli to finish top 2 in qualifying
Forced to start at the back of the grid due to an enforced penalty, Antonelli is unlikely to finish in the top three in Sunday’s race. That won’t prevent him from enjoying a scorching qualifying, though, and Monza is set up perfectly for the Italian to do precisely that.
This course, more than any other, was created for speed. That bodes well for Antonelli. Mercedes decided to take the penalty at the Italian Grand Prix, as they believe the track provides Antonelli the best chance to make up substantial ground.
With a point to prove and no pressure, he should be lightning-quick in qualification.
👊 George Russell to finish in the top 3
Russell’s season has taken a turn for the better recently, and he’s finished among the top three in four of the previous six races. He finished third at the Dutch Grand Prix, and I like his chances of replicating that feat at the Italian GP.
With Antonelli’s penalty likely preventing him from a top-three finish, the pressure is on Russell to do the business.
Lucky for him, the course is conducive to a blistering pace from the W17, which is inarguably the fastest and most efficient on tracks that have a disproportionate amount of straightaways.
Excluding a forgettable first-lap collision with Lewis Hamilton at the Belgian Grand Prix, Russell scored a podium finish in five of his last six races.
💡 How I'm betting the Italian Grand Prix
I’m riding with the hot hand for Sunday’s race. Norris has been exquisite lately, and the likelihood of keeping his streak alive increased when Mercedes took the penalty on Antonelli.
Speaking of Antonelli, nothing is stopping him from enjoying a strong qualifying.
I’m investing one unit on the first two wagers and two on the third. Russell has a 66% chance of finishing among the top three, according to his odds at FanDuel.
Investing more to elicit a decent return, I’m confident his recent form has been good enough to take the plunge.
🏆 Past Italian Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
| 2025 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-Honda RBPT |
| 2024 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari |
| 2023 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-Honda RBPT |
| 2022 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-RBPT |
| 2021 | Daniel Ricciardo | McLaren |
| 2020 | Pierre Gasly | AlphaTauri |
| 2019 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari |
| 2018 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2017 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2016 | Nico Rosberg | Mercedes |
🗓️ 2026 Italian Grand Prix schedule
- Practice 1: Friday, Sept. 4 @ 6:30 a.m. ET
- Practice 2: Friday, Sept. 4 @ 10 a.m. ET
- Practice 3: Saturday, Sept. 5 @ 6:30 a.m. ET
- Qualifying: Saturday, Sept. 5 @ 10 a.m. ET
- Race: Sunday, Sept. 6 @ 9 a.m. ET
📺 How to watch 2026 Italian Grand Prix
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 6
- Time: 9 a.m. ET
- Location: Autodromo Nazionale Monza (Monza, Italy)
- How to watch: ESPN
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
Related Articles
