Two NL East division rivals in the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets meet again Saturday at Citi Field for the second contest of a three-game series in Flushing, NY. Both teams will run their aces out on the hill, as Aaron Nola makes the start for the Phillies and Jacob deGrom takes the mound for just the third time this season for the Mets. Here are our Phillies-Mets picks.
Saturday's game has all the makings of a pitchers' duel between two of the top ball-throwers in the league in Nola and deGrom. Nola’s low fastball has been a problem for every hitter he’s faced, and while deGrom’s making only his third start of the year, he seemingly hasn’t missed a beat.
Both the Phillies and Mets have won eight of their 10 last games as the two hottest teams in the NL East. The Mets have been one of the best of the best all year, with the second-best record in the NL. The Phillies offense has been hot and cold this year, but is currently riding a high, with the best OPS in the league in August at 1.091.
Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Saturday night’s game between the Phillies and Mets (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 scale).
Phillies vs. Mets Game Info
Date/Time: Saturday, Aug. 13, 7:10 p.m. ET
Location: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
Weather: 79 degrees, 0% chance of rain, 5.8-mph winds
Phillies vs. Mets Odds Analysis
The Mets are the moneyline favorites in this game, ranging from -200 at BetMGM to -215 at DraftKings. The total is set at 6 at DraftKings and FanDuel, and 6.5 at BetMGM.
The public and sharps are aligned on New York with 81% of the tickets and 89% of the cash backing the Mets. However, 63% of the tickets are on the Over while 79% of the cash is on the Under.
Phillies vs. Mets Projected Pitchers
RHP Aaron Nola (8-8, 3.17 ERA, 0.95 WHIP) vs. RHP Jacob deGrom (1-0, 2.53 ERA, 0.47 WHIP)
Nola’s been having his best season since 2018. He ranks in the 80th percentile or higher in nearly every category, with his low fastball in particular stumping every hitter he faces.
Opponents are hitting .121 against Nola on low fastballs, and he has a strikeout rate of 70%. He’s gotten his walks down this year, with a K:BB ratio of 7.8.
For the Mets, deGrom is making just his third since returning from injury. DeGrom’s workload has been lighter in his last two games to ensure a full recovery and postseason availability. He threw 59 pitches in his first start and 76 in his last start.
Despite the limited workload, there doesn’t seem to be any worries concerning deGrom finding his groove. In his two starts, he has a strikeout rate of 50.0%; the league average sits at 22%. Since the 2020 season, opponents have a miss rate of 42% against deGrom and the league average is 26%. Through his two starts this month, deGrom's miss rate is at 46%.
While it’s unlikely we see deGrom reach a full workload Saturday, he hasn’t missed a beat for the Mets since his return and struck out 12 over 5 2/3 innings last time out against the Atlanta Braves.
Phillies vs. Mets Picks
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Phillies vs. Mets ML Pick
Even in only his third start of the season, betting against deGrom and this Mets team doesn’t feel wise. Although deGrom has a small sample size of work this season, there hasn’t been a hotter team than the Mets of late. Since the All-Star break, New York’s hitting almost .300 as a team, and has averaged 5.63 runs per game.
With their ace on the mound, the Mets also have one of the best bullpens in the league. Their relievers rank 10th overall in MLB with a 3.55 ERA, and seventh with 151 earned runs allowed. As the Mets increase deGrom’s workload, if they can even get five innings out of him, that’ll put them in a great spot to win against anyone.
The Mets are firing from all cylinders, hitting and pitching, and it’s going to take a near-perfect performance from Nola, their bullpen, and of course their bats for Philadelphia to contain the Mets.
Phillies vs. Mets O/U Pick
Under 6 (-105)
Even with the Mets averaging 5.63 runs per game since the midseason break, in a pitchers' duel of this caliber, it’s tough to see this being a high-scoring matchup.
We saw it last night in a 2-1 win for the Phillies, and statistically speaking this season, the Under has been the move for these two teams. The Under went 4-0 in the Phillies' last four games, and in Game 2 of a series, the Mets are 9-1 to the Under in their last 10. All this leads me to take the Under.
Phillies vs. Mets Prop Pick
Nola Over 5.5 strikeouts (-120)
Nola has faced the Mets three times this season with a total of 16 1/3 innings pitched. He’s posted a 3.86 ERA with 21 strikeouts.
A tough lineup no doubt, I’m still taking the Over on 5.5 strikeouts for Nola given his success this year against the Mets with 11.6 K/9.
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Phillies-Mets picks from 8/13/2022 at 1:29 p.m. ET