Mets vs. Yankees Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Sunday, Sept. 13
Two crosstown rivals, the New York Mets and New York Yankees, meet for the final time this season, and my Mets vs. Yankees prediction calls for a big victory from the home favorites with ace Cam Schlitter on the mound. That has me backing two Bronx Bombers with a combo player prop and a home run wager to round out my MLB picks.
Opposing Schlittler on the mound is Christian Scott, and first pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET (MLB.TV). The Yankees are -185 betting favorites.
⚾ Mets vs. Yankees picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds;
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Yankees -1.5 (+122 via FanDuel) | 1u → 1.22u | The Yankees should salvage a split of the season series behind their AL Cy Young favorite |
| Francisco Lindor Under 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-145 via Caesars) | 1u → 0.69u | This is a great sell-high spot with Lindor facing the AL's best pitcher |
| Luis Garcia Jr. to hit a home run (+360 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 0.90u | Garcia Jr. should add to his career season with another long ball today |
Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 2.81 units
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🏆 Who will win Mets vs. Yankees?
The Yankees entered this series a season-high 23 games over .500, and they should again continue to feast on teams with a losing record in this series finale.
Score prediction: Yankees 6, Mets 2
💰 Mets vs. Yankees prediction & best bet
Yankees -1.5 (+122)
Cam Schlittler may be young, but he is already having a season to remember. He became the fourth-youngest Yankees pitcher to reach 200 strikeouts in a single season, and he has 20 starts allowing one run. That’s the most in a single season in Yankees history (three others had 18 such starts).
To add to that nostalgia, Schlittler is coming off his fourth start of 10-plus strikeouts and no walks, which is tied for the second most such starts in Yankees history Gerrit Cole had 6 in 2021).
📡 SBR Edge: An historic feat
The Yankees have already clinched their 34th straight winning season, and their own Bronx Bomber squad from 1926-64 (spanning 39 seasons) is the only team across the four major American professional sports leagues with a longer streak.
🔥 Best Mets vs. Yankees player prop bet
Francisco Lindor Under 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-145)
Entering the weekend, Francisco Lindor had a .938 career OPS against the Yankees, which was the fourth-best by an opponent among active players (min. 200 PA). All he did on Saturday to add to that was go 3-for-5 with two home runs, while driving in five runs in a 12-2 victory.
This marks a great opportunity to sell high on the Mets leadoff hitter, as he faces the AL leader in ERA, starts of one earned run or fewer, and WAR. The Cy Young favorite also has thrown 39.5% of his pitches three or more feet above the ground, which is the most of any MLB pitcher (min. 1000 pitches). That elevated arm angle should be an issue for Lindor in his first career at-bats against the Yankees righty.
💣 Mets vs. Yankees home run prediction
Luis Garcia Jr. to hit a home run (+360)
Luis Garcia Jr. batted .304 with a .518 slugging percentage in his first 31 games donning the pinstripes. He has already logged his first career 30-home run season, and is nine RBI shy of his first season with 100 RBI.
Garcia Jr. entered this series as one of five players with 12 or more extra-base hits against the three different pitch types of fastballs, breaking balls, and offspeed pitches. He had 27 extra-base hits in 217 plate appearances against fastball, 22 in 152 plate appearances against breaking balls (with a .625 slugging percentage), and 12 in 130 plate appearances against offspeed pitches.
🚀 Mets vs. Yankees same-game parlay
The two player prop wagers of this same-game parlay pair nicely the Yankees’ chances of covering the run line. I took the more conservative route with Garcia Jr. needing only to record a base hit, which he has done in each of his last six games started (with three multi-hit games mixed in.
💵 Mets vs. Yankees SGP picks
- Yankees -1.5
- Francisco Lindor Under 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
- Luis Garcia Jr. to record 1+ hits
Best odds: +448 via Caesars (0.1u -> 0.45u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 260-435-2 | +45.49 units ✅ | +10.6% ✅ |
| Game picks | 101-78-2 | +15.86 units ✅ | +6.4% ✅ |
| Player props | 159-357 | +29.63 units ✅ | +11.9% ✅ |
📊 Live Mets vs. Yankees odds
[MetaBet Widget]
The Yankees are 4-0 in Schlittler’s last four starts, and covered the run line three times. They won 5-2 in the righty’s first start in the Subway Series this season. Despite that, it appears sharp action is on the Mets, as the Yankees have lowered as much as five cents from -190 to -185 at BetMGM despite receiving two-third of the moneyline wagers.
The market is aligned with an O/U of 7.5 runs. bet365 is the only top sports betting site to waver off of that number, as it has bounced back and forth between 7.5 and 8 overnight. It wouldn't be surprising to see it get back to 8 at some point before first pitch, as a whopping 70% of the wagers are on the Over.
📈 Mets vs. Yankees betting trends
| Mets | Statistic | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| 69-79 | W-L record | 85-63 |
| 69-79 | Run line record | 74-73-1 |
| 70-69-9 | O/U record | 65-79-4 |
| 7-3 | Last 10 games | 7-3 |
| 4.19 | Team ERA | 3.26 |
| .239 | Team batting avg. | .235 |
| .706 | OPS | .722 |
🚑 Mets vs. Yankees injuries
[MetaBet Injury Tile widget]
📺 How to watch Mets vs. Yankees
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 13
- First pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, N.Y.)
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Mets starter: Christian Scott (4-4, 3.81 ERA)
- Yankees starter: Cam Schlittler (13-6, 2.01 ERA)
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