MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds for Saturday, Sept. 12
A loaded 15-game slate is set for Saturday's MLB schedule, meaning we've got a ton of talented hitters to target with my home run predictions today. After a 0-3 outing Friday, let's bounce back by locking in a few star players to go yard in favorable matchups.
My latest MLB home run picks start with Pete Crow-Armstrong. The Cubs' leadoff hitter is a heavy favorite to win the NL MVP award due to his elite hitting numbers, mashing 3 home runs since the start of September. Now, Crow-Armstrong faces Paul Skenes, who is allowing a ton of contact at the plate, with ideal conditions at Wrigley Field today.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Sept. 12
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (+279 via DraftKings) | 0.5u β 1.39u | Crow-Armstrong sits 94th in xSLG (.502) and has 14 of 24 home runs at Wrigley Field against right-handed pitchers. |
| Alec Burleson (+475 via bet365) | 0.25u β 1.18u | Burleson is 98th in xSLG (.524) and has hit 6 of 7 home runs at Busch Stadium against right-handed pitching. |
| Corbin Carroll (+517 via DraftKings) | 0.25u β 1.29u | Carroll has logged 13 of 20 home runs from Chase Field in 2026, including a homer on Friday night. |
Total wagered: 1 unit | Max profit: 3.86 units
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+279)
Even casual baseball fans know how well Crow-Armstrong has been hitting in 2026. PCA ranks 100th in batting run value (47) this year, including the 94th percentile for xSLG (.502) and the 90th percentile in hard-hit percentage (49.0).
Paul Skenes has been having a down year. PCA is a southpaw, so he draws an ideal matchup against a right-handed pitcher like Skenes.
Factor in Wrigley Field's weather forecast today, and it gets even better to back PCA. Wind is expected to be blowing out at 10.9 mph.
Bet on Crow-Armstrong's home run prop at +279 odds on DraftKings.
- Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: September to Remember
Crow-Armstrong has hit 3 home runs in September, including 1 at Wrigley Field.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Alec Burleson (+475)
I love tonight's matchup for Alec Burleson. The Cardinals' 1B faces Luis Castillo, who has surrendered seven home runs across his last four starts for the White Sox.
Burleson is a textbook power hitter at the plate. He ranks in the 98th percentile for xSLG (.524) and 91st for hard-hit percentage (49.8) in 2026. Burleson also has hit six of his seven home runs at Busch Stadium against right-handed pitchers this year.
He's coming off a 2-hit outing, including an extra-base hit. Burleson's one of the Cardinals' best hitters and already has a career-high 22 home runs.
Go to bet365 for the best line on Burleson's home run prop at +475 odds.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
💵 More Phillies vs. Braves picks
Our Mike Spector backs the favorite today in his Phillies vs. Braves prediction.
Home run pick: Corbin Carroll (+517)
I tried to back Corbin Carroll for a home run earlier this week, but he wound up sitting out of the lineup in Kansas City. Now, the lefty returns to the comfortable confines of Chase Field, where he's recorded 13 of 20 home runs in 2026.
Carroll faces right-handed starter Kumar Rocker tonight. Rocker has allowed four home runs in his last four starts for the Rangers. Carroll has taken right-handed pitchers deep for 14 of his 20 home runs.
Coming off a home run during Friday's 9-1 win, Carroll is hot, while sitting in the 87th percentile for avg exit velo (91.7) and 84th for hard-hit percentage (47.9) this season.
Go back to DraftKings to bet on Carroll's home run prop at +517 odds.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
⚾️ More MLB props today
Looking for more? Dive into Phil Wood's best NRFI bets today.
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (+279)
- Alec Burleson (+454)
- Corbin Carroll (+517)
Best odds: +12855 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 12.85u)
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