Commanders vs. Eagles Prediction: Week 1 Odds, Picks & Best Bet
We get an NFC East rivalry right out of the gate to kick off the NFL season as the Philadelphia Eagles begin their quest for a third straight NFC East title when hosting the Washington Commanders, but my Commanders vs. Eagles prediction finds the most value in the total, especially given the significant injury Washington suffered on its offensive line.
Kickoff from Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday, airing on FOX. The Eagles are 5.5-point betting favorites.
🏈 Commanders vs. Eagles picks & predictions
See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 1 based on the latest NFL odds.
| Pick | Bet size |
|---|---|
| Washington +5.5 (-108 via BetMGM) | 1 unit to win 0.93 units |
| Under 44.5 (-112 via BetMGM) | 1 unit to win 0.89 units |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: +1.82 units
💰 Commanders vs. Eagles prediction & best bet
Check out all of our NFL picks for more analysis across this week's slate.
Under 44.5 (-112 via BetMGM)
Part of me wanted to make the Commanders covering my best bet for this game, as they are the only NFC East team to win on the road at the Eagles over the last four seasons (2-3 record, including playoffs). But I instead am backing the Under given Washington’s surprising decline when it had a healthy Jayden Daniels last season, as well as Philadelphia’s confusing offensive identity.
In 2024, Washington went 12-5 while averaging 28.5 points and 370 total yards per game in Daniels’ 17 starts. But in seven healthy starts last year, Daniels ranked 22nd overall with a 48 Total QBR.
Meanwhile, it cannot be easy for Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense to adjust to their fifth different play-caller in five seasons.
Early reports suggest new offensive coordinator Nick Mannion will want to get back to a ground-and-pound style featuring the dynamic Saquon Barkley and utilizing Hurts’ legs. But Hurts is still going to have to move the ball through the air, and he is coming off a season where he averaged 7.1 yards per attempt (career-worst), logged a 55 Total QBR (his worst since 2021), and had a 14% off-target percentage (worst since 2021).
📡 SBR EDGE - Significant decline from 2024
Philadelphia went from being ranked in the top five in yards per rush, rushing first downs, and rushing touchdowns in 2024 to ranking anywhere from 14th to 23rd in each of those categories last season.
The Laremy Tunsil injury impacts Washington’s offensive line
Don’t underestimate the impact that losing just one player, especially the caliber of Laremy Tunsil, will have on the Commanders offensive line.
When Tunsil was on the field last season, Washington averaged 5.0 overall yards per rush, 4.4 yards per rush running left, and a 16-9 passing touchdown-to-interception ratio. When Tunsil was off the field, those numbers dropped to 4.0 overall yards per rush, 2.6 yards per rush running left, and a 3-3 passing touchdown-to-interception ratio.
These were the win rates in three starts in 2025 from Tunsil’s replacement, Brandon Coleman: 94% Pass Block Win Rate (22nd) and 79% Run Block (19th) among offensive linemen with a minimum of 150 snaps.
Score prediction: Eagles 21, Commanders 17
📊 Commanders vs. Eagles odds
See the latest NFL odds for every Week 1 matchup.
Commanders vs. Eagles opening odds
- Moneyline: Commanders +185 | Eagles -225
- Spread: Commanders +4.5 (-110) | Eagles -4.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 (-110) | Under 47.5 (-110)
📺 How to watch Commanders vs. Eagles: Week 1
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 13
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia)
- TV: FOX
- Streaming: Fubo
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