Phillies vs. Braves Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Saturday, Sept. 12
The Philadelphia Phillies are running out of time to make up ground on the Atlanta Braves in the NL East, but my Phillies vs. Braves prediction backs the home favorites at relatively short odds after the news that Jesus Luzardo was being scratched from his start. With that comes by best player prop wager with Tyler Mahle getting the best of Bryce Harper, while I also back the MLB home run leader to go yard with the last of my MLB picks.
First pitch from Truist Park in Atlanta is set for 7:15 p.m. ET (MLB.TV). The Braves are -115 betting favorites.
⚾ Phillies vs. Braves picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds;
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Braves ML (-115 via bet365) | 1u → 0.87u | Mahle has been one of MLB's best pitchers in the second half |
| Bryce Harper Under 1.5 total bases (-170 via Caesars) | 1u → 0.59u | Harper has just one extra-base hit in September |
| Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run (+270 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 0.68u | The MLB home run leader went deep in Mahle's last start |
Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 2.14 units
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🏆 Who will win Phillies vs. Braves?
Atlanta just endured its first three-game home losing streak of the season this week, but I still have more confidence in the Braves than a Phillies squad that entered this series 3-5 in their last eight games, while not winning consecutive games at any point this month.
Score prediction: Braves 3, Phillies 2
💰 Phillies vs. Braves prediction & best bet
Braves ML (-115)
In Tyler Mahle’s first five starts with the Braves, he went 2-1 with a 1.48 ERA over 30 ⅓ innings, a 32:5 K:BB ratio, and a 0.96 WHIP. He held opponents to a .216 batting average and .581 OPS, after allowing a .265 average and .770 OPS in 18 starts with the Giants.
Mahle followed that up with six scoreless innings in his last start. I wouldn't put anyone off simply backing Atlanta to lead after five innings, since seven of the nine runs that were scored in Mahle’s last start against the Phillies came after the fifth inning.
📡 SBR Edge: Off to quick starts
Atlanta has covered the first five innings run line in 27 of its last 40 home games (+13.80 units/30% ROI).
🔥 Best Phillies vs. Braves player prop bet
Bryce Harper Under 1.5 total bases (-170)
Bryce Harper entered this series with five hits in his previous 27 at-bats and no extra-base hits over an eight-game span. He broke out of that funk with his second multi-hit performance against the Braves in the last four matchups. But he also has just one extra-base hit this month, and went 0-for-4 in the game that Mahle started last week.
Harper still ranks in the 87th percentile or better in xBA and xSLG on the season, and his walk rate is on pace to be his best since 2022 (16.2%). But walks don't count towards a player's total bases prop, and Mahle is a crafty enough pitcher to take advantage of Harper's 29th percentile chase rate and 17th percentile whiff rate.
💣 Phillies vs. Braves home run prediction
Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run (+270)
No Phillies batter touched Mahle in his start last week, as he only allowed four hits, though two went for extra bases. Kyle Schwarber still managed to homer in that game and extend his MLB-lead. Even if it comes late again off the Braves bullpen, he still makes for a great value play here.
Schwarber is the only player on either side with multiple career home runs off of today’s starting pitcher. He is 6-for-22 with two home runs against Mahle, and the Atlanta bullpen also ranks in the bottom half of the league in HR/9 rate since the start of August.
🚀 Phillies vs. Braves same-game parlay
Backing a Braves victory goes hand-in-hand with Bryce Harper's struggles. If you're looking for a better return on a two-leg same-game parlay, I wouldn't put anyone off backing Harper to go hitless, which would bring the payout of this SGP to +357.
💵 Phillies vs. Braves SGP picks
- Braves ML
- Bryce Harper Under 1.5 total bases
Best odds: +191 via Caesars (0.1u -> 0.19u)
📊 Live Phillies vs. Braves odds
This line was hovering around Philadelphia -130 at the top sports betting sites, but quickly jumped the fence when news of Luzardo being scratched with shoulder stiffness broke. As of now, the Phillies haven't announced their starting pitching plans, but one would assume they'd just rely on a bullpen game instead of tampering with the rest of the rotation.
The O/U wasn't as affected by the Luzardo news, holding firm at 7.5 at most sportsbooks, though bet365 has ticked up to 8. The Over has been the more popular side though, and I'd expect more 8's to pop up before first pitch, since 63% of the wagers are on that side of the total.
📈 Phillies vs. Braves betting trends
| Phillies | Statistic | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| 82-66 | W-L record | 87-61 |
| 62-86 | Run line record | 79-69 |
| 68-74-6 | O/U record | 66-77-5 |
| 4-6 | Last 10 games | 5-5 |
| 3.98 | Team ERA | 3.57 |
| .241 | Team batting avg. | .246 |
| .710 | OPS | .718 |
🚑 Phillies vs. Braves injuries
📺 How to watch Phillies vs. Braves
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 12
- First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Truist Park (Atlanta)
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Phillies starter: Undecided
- Braves starter: Tyler Mahle (5-10, 4.05 ERA)
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