Mets vs. Yankees Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Saturday, Sept. 12
After an emotional series opener on 9/11 between the New York Yankees and New York Mets yesterday, the Subway Series resumes, and I’m calling for a slugfest with my Mets vs. Yankees prediction. Although I am backing that prediction up with a Bronx Bomber to go deep, I also expect a big game from a one-time Yankee with the last of my MLB picks.
First pitch from Yankee Stadium in the Bronx is set for 1:35 p.m. ET (MLB Network), and the starting pitching matchup is between Zac Thornton and Gerrit Cole. The Yankees are -190 betting favorites.
⚾ Mets vs. Yankees picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds;
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Over 8 (-113 via DraftKings) | 1u → 0.89u | The Mets offense averaged nearly nine runs per game over their last seven entering this series |
| Juan Soto Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-102 via DraftKings) | 1u → 0.98u | Soto ranks in the top five in OPS since the start of May |
| Paul Goldschmidt to hit a home run (+475 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.19u | Goldschmidt has been one of the best hitters against LHP this season |
Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.06 units
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🏆 Who will win Mets vs. Yankees?
The Yankees entered this series a season-high 22 games over .500, and they should again continue to feast on teams with a losing record in this second game of a three-game set.
Score prediction: Yankees 6, Mets 5
💰 Mets vs. Yankees prediction & best bet
Over 8 (-113)
Gerrit Cole looked like he was trending in the right direction with a 2.84 ERA and 10.3 K/9 rate in the 11 starts prior to his last outing. Though Cole allowed six total hits, three came on home runs by three consecutive Padres batters to start the game. Perhaps he is regressing back to the pitcher that logged a 4.06 ERA and 8.1 K/9 rate in his first seven starts.
Cole is relying on contact to record outs, as he ranks in the 28th and 30th percentile in whiff and chase rate, respectively.
📡 SBR Edge: Mets breaking out the lumber
The Mets entered this series amid a 6-1 stretch during which their offense averaged 8.6 runs per game and scored double-digit runs three times. That included a 15-14 win over the Marlins, where the 29 combined runs were the second-most in a game this season.
🔥 Best Mets vs. Yankees player prop bet
Juan Soto Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-102)
Juan Soto had a rough go of it as a visitor at Yankee Stadium for the first time after donning the pinstripes in 2024, as he finished the series 1-for-10 with a .143 BABIP. But he was red-hot after an extended period on the IL, with three home runs and seven RBI in his first 10 games post-injury. He is six home runs shy of his fourth straight 30-home run season.
Soto ranks fifth in OPS since the start of May (min. 300 PA) and is one of four players with an OPS of .850 or better in every season since 2021.
Gerrit Cole hasn’t been invincible, and the contact he is pitching to has resulted in a 44% hard-hit rate (10th percentile) and 8.7% barrel rate (27th percentile).
💣 Mets vs. Yankees home run prediction
Paul Goldschmidt to hit a home run (+475)
The Mets send southpaw Zac Thornton to the mound, which almost automatically signaled a play on some Paul Goldschmidt player prop. I settled on Goldschmidt as my top home run play, given that he has the sixth-highest OPS of any player in the right-handed batter vs. left-handed pitcher split.
Goldschmidt did not homer in the six-game West Coast trip, but he did homer in two of the three home games prior. Eleven of his 18 home runs have come against southpaws, and Thornton has allowed at least one homer in four of his last five starts. That includes his last outing where the Giants tagged him for a season-high four long balls at Citi Field.
🚀 Mets vs. Yankees same-game parlay
The two player prop wagers of this same-game parlay pair nicely with the Over and increase the chances of a slugfest breaking out. I took the more conservative route with Goldschmidt needing only to record a base hit, which he has done in seven of his last eight games started.
💵 Mets vs. Yankees SGP picks
- Over 8
- Juan Soto Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
- Paul Goldschmidt to record 1+ hits
Best odds: +433 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 0.43u)
📊 Live Mets vs. Yankees odds
The Yankees have gotten two-thirds of the moneyline wagers, which has caused the moneyline to move as much as five cents at BetMGM (from an opening number of -185 to a market high -190).
The total is at 8 across all top sports betting sites except for FanDuel, who is a half-run higher at 8.5 (though the Under is juiced to -130). But perhaps more sportsbooks will align at 8.5 since the Over has attracted 66% of wagers.
📈 Mets vs. Yankees betting trends
| Mets | Statistic | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| 68-79 | W-L record | 85-62 |
| 68-79 | Run line record | 74-72-1 |
| 69-69-9 | O/U record | 64-79-4 |
| 7-3 | Last 10 games | 7-3 |
| 4.21 | Team ERA | 3.20 |
| .238 | Team batting avg. | .235 |
| .702 | OPS | .723 |
🚑 Mets vs. Yankees injuries
📺 How to watch Mets vs. Yankees
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 12
- First pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, N.Y.)
- TV: MLB Network
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Mets starter: Zac Thornton (3-5, 3.53 ERA)
- Yankees starter: Gerrit Cole (8-8, 3.41 ERA)
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