Phillies vs. Braves Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Sunday, Sept. 13
The NL East rival Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves meet for the last time in the regular season, and my Phillies vs. Braves prediction backs the home favorites to put the proverbial nail in the coffin in the divisional race with a victory this afternoon. The fact that Philadelphia starting pitcher Andrew Painter has reverse splits against left-handed batters means good things for Matt Olson, while Ronald Acuna Jr. should continue to be a table setter.
Opposing Painter is Atlanta's Grant Holmes, and first pitch from Truist Park in Atlanta is set for 1:35 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited). The Braves are -130 betting favorites.
⚾ Phillies vs. Braves picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds;
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Braves ML (-130 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.77u | Atlanta is 9-3 with a plus-28 run differential against Philadelphia this year |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 0.5 runs (-117 via DraftKings) | 1u → 0.86u | Acuna Jr. has turned back the clock with an outstanding September |
| Matt Olson hit a home run (+324 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 0.81u | Olson should take advantage of Painter's poor splits against LHB |
Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 2.44 units
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🏆 Who will win Phillies vs. Braves?
Atlanta is a solid 32-22 against left-handed starting pitchers, and it should win this series finale against arguably Philadelphia’s weakest starting pitcher. The Braves have also won nine of the 12 head-to-head matchups this season, a big improvement over their 5-8 record versus the Phillies last year.
Score prediction: Braves 5, Phillies 3
💰 Phillies vs. Braves prediction & best bet
Braves ML (-130)
Atlanta’s Grant Holmes took a hard-luck no-decision in his last start after he pitched six scoreless innings against Philadelphia in a game the Braves ultimately lost 1-0. In that outing, Holmes got whiffs on 39% of his pitches (17 of 44) and generated a 33% called strike + whiff rate. In a day and age where pitchers are throwing harder and harder, Holmes did more than get by with an average 90.2 mph velocity.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia lost each of Andrew Painter’s two starts against the Braves, while the southpaw allowed eight of the nine runs in that span.
📡 SBR Edge: Can't beat the contenders
Philadelphia is 0-8 in Andrew Painter's eight starts against teams currently occupying a playoff spot, losing by a combined score of 42-to-16.
🔥 Best Phillies vs. Braves player prop bet
Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 0.5 runs (-117)
Ronald Acuna Jr. continues to be an outstanding table-setter for the Braves offense in the month of September. He homered and went 3-for-3 in yesterday’s contest, and the leadoff man is now slashing .364/.383/.727 in September. He broke a three-game drought without a run scored with yesterday’s solo shot, but he had scored at least one run in five of the seven games prior since the calendar turned.
From 2018-25, Acuna Jr. slashed .289/.384/.524 with a 141 OPS, and a 5.7 WAR average over a full 162-game season. His September is on par or exceeds most of those numbers, and he has a 1.184 OPS in 45 at-bats against the division rival Phillies this season.
💣 Phillies vs. Braves home run prediction
Matt Olson to hit a home run (+324)
Andrew Painter hasn’t been as tough on left-handed batters as the Philadelphia coaching staff would’ve hoped from its southpaw. Painter has allowed a .292/.344/.466 slash line to left-handed batters, with 11 of his 19 homers allowed coming in that split.
Olson has 38 home runs, and became the 14th active player with at least five seasons of 30-plus homers. Only Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber have hit more home runs than him since 2017. He snapped a 14-game home run drought on Friday, but I’m backing him to go deep and inch closer to the 40-home run plateau this afternoon.
🚀 Phillies vs. Braves same-game parlay
The two player prop wagers of this same-game parlay pair nicely the Braves’ chances of winning outright. I took the more conservative route with Olson needing only to record a base hit, which he had done in four of five games entering the weekend.
💵 Phillies vs. Braves SGP picks
- Braves ML
- Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 0.5 runs
- Matt Olson to record 1+ hits
Best odds: +367 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 0.37u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 260-435-2 | +45.49 units ✅ | +10.6% ✅ |
| Game picks | 101-78-2 | +15.86 units ✅ | +6.4% ✅ |
| Player props | 159-357 | +29.63 units ✅ | +11.9% ✅ |
📊 Live Phillies vs. Braves odds
With 64% of the moneyline wagers backing the home favorites, the moneyline odds have moved as much as five cents at the top sports betting sites, from -130 to -135 at BetMGM. The total is more evenly split (57/43 in favor of the Over), and hasn't moved much as a result with all of the best MLB betting sites at an O/U of 9 except for FanDuel. There, the O/U is 8.5, but could align with the rest of the market at 9 soon since the Over is juiced to -132 (56.90% implied probability).
📈 Phillies vs. Braves betting trends
| Phillies | Statistic | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| 82-67 | W-L record | 88-61 |
| 62-87 | Run line record | 80-69 |
| 69-74-6 | O/U record | 67-77-5 |
| 3-7 | Last 10 games | 6-4 |
| 4.00 | Team ERA | 3.56 |
| .241 | Team batting avg. | .247 |
| .709 | OPS | .720 |
🚑 Phillies vs. Braves injuries
📺 How to watch Phillies vs. Braves
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 13
- First pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Truist Park (Atlanta)
- TV: ESPN Unlimited
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Phillies starter: Andrew Painter (3-9, 5.71)
- Braves starter: Grant Holmes (9-5, 3.46)
