Mariners vs. Blue Jays Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (Friday, Aug. 28)

RHP Emerson Hancock and RHP Dylan Cease square off today in the first game of a three-game set as we break down the Mariners vs. Blue Jays win probability.

The Blue Jays have a 57% win probability on prediction market apps, but that number should be higher considering how well Cease has pitched this season. First pitch from Rogers Centre in Toronto is set for 7:15 p.m. ET (Apple TV).

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🏆 Who will win Mariners vs. Blue Jays? Live MLB win probability

The Blue Jays have a 57% win probability, and more than $174,000 has already been traded in this market. Toronto's win probability was as high as 62.6% Friday morning, but money has come in on the Mariners as liquidity has increased. Yes contracts on the Blue Jays are available at 59¢, with more than $224,000 in liquidity at that price.

The Mariners are coming off a 2-1 series win over the Phillies in Seattle from Monday through Wednesday. They dropped the finale 6-0 and were shut out for the second time in their last nine games (22-0 loss to the Brewers in Milwaukee on Aug. 18).

The Blue Jays have lost two of three games in each of their last two series. They dropped a series against the Yankees in New York (Aug. 21-23) and another against the Royals in Toronto (Tuesday through Thursday). The Blue Jays are coming off a 13-2 loss in Thursday's finale, their largest margin of defeat since July 4 (11-0 loss to the Mariners in Seattle).

My prediction: Blue Jays win (59¢). The Blue Jays have won four of Cease's last six starts. The second favorite in the AL Cy Young odds has allowed two or fewer earned runs five times in that span and ranks in the 100th percentile in pitching run value.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Mariners vs. Blue Jays?

Kazuma Okamoto and Cal Raleigh have the highest probability of hitting a home run today, both at 16%.

Okamoto has a team-high 26 home runs on the season but has not homered in any of his last six games. Raleigh, meanwhile, has hit six home runs across his last 10 outings.

George Springer has the second-highest home run probability at 12%, followed by Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., all at 11%.

My prediction: Nathan Lukes to hit a home run (<9¢). Lukes is not available at the time of publishing, but he likely will be closer to first pitch. He's homered in three of his last six games and has much better splits against right-handed pitching (.419 SLG, compared to .214 against lefties). However, I wouldn't pay more than 8¢. For more home run analysis, see the rest of my home run predictions today.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Mariners vs. Blue Jays?

More than $14,000 in volume has cleared in this market, with traders projecting a 42% chance of a first-inning run. If you're looking to buy Yes contracts at 42¢, you can instantly get more than $23,000 filled.

The Mariners have had a first-inning run scored in 54% of their games, while the Blue Jays have seen a first-inning run in 48% of theirs. Hancock has allowed a first-inning run in each of his last two starts, while Cease hasn't allowed one in any of his last nine.

My prediction: No run in the first inning (59¢). Cease has been one of the top two pitchers in the American League this season (with the other being the Yankees' Cam Schlittler), and the Blue Jays' offense has scored a first-inning run in just one of its last four games. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our NRFIs today from our MLB expert LJ Blut.

📊 Mariners vs. Blue Jays win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Mariners vs. Blue Jays

• Date: Friday, Aug. 28
• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Rogers Centre (Toronto)
• TV: Apple TV
• Mariners starter: Emerson Hancock (7-7, 3.37 ERA)
• Blue Jays starter: Dylan Cease (8-5, 2.37 ERA)