MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds for Friday, Aug. 28
After a profitable Wednesday, my MLB home run picks went 0-for-3 Thursday night. However, a loaded 15-game slate gives us a chance to bounce back. My home run predictions today feature Fernando Tatis Jr., Jordan Walker, and Edmundo Sosa.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Aug. 28
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. to homer (+450 via BetMGM) | 0.44u β 2u | Tatis is slashing .306/.392/.632 with 12 home runs since the All-Star break. |
| Jordan Walker to homer (+505 via DraftKings) | 0.4u β 2u | Jones ranks in the 37th percentile in barrel rate, while Walker ranks in the 89th percentile. |
| Edmundo Sosa to homer (+750 via Hard Rock Bet) | 0.27u β 2u | Detmers throws primarily fastballs and breaking balls to RHH, and Sosa has a .466 and .436 xSLG against those pitch types, respectively. |
Total wagered: 1.11 units | Max profit: 6 units
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Fernando Tatis Jr. (+450)
After a slow start to the season - he didn't hit his first home run until May 30 - Tatis has been on fire since the All-Star break. He's slashing .306/.392/.632 with 12 home runs since the break and has homered four times in his last eight games.
Tatis faces Shane McClanahan today, who ranks in the 24th percentile in barrel rate. He throws an almost-even mix of fastballs, offspeed pitches, and breaking balls, which is fine for Tatis, as he has an xSLG of .468 or higher against all three pitch types.
BetMGM's +450 odds are the best available among the top MLB betting sites.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
💵 SBR Edge: Tatis vs. Lefties
Tatis is slashing .304/.395/.589 against left-handed pitching this season, with seven home runs in just 112 at-bats.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Jordan Walker (+505)
Yes, Walker hasn't homered in five straight games, but he entered this drought on a three-game homer streak. So, while recency bias is inflating this line, he's still having a solid month overall, with five home runs in August.
Walker faces Pirates starter Jared Jones today. Jones ranks in the 37th percentile in barrel rate, which is great for Walker, as he ranks in the 89th percentile in the same stat. The home run drought has a good chance of ending today.
Walker to homer (+505) at DraftKings is the best line available among the top sports betting sites.
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Edmundo Sosa (+750)
Sosa may have just five home runs on the season, but he has a favorable pitching matchup today and will likely get some good contact.
Angels starter Reid Detmers throws 46% fastballs and 41.2% breaking balls to right-handed hitters. Luckily for Sosa, he has an xSLG of .466 and .436 against those pitches, respectively.
Don't overreact to Sosa's season-long home run stats - he's only played in 68 games - as his chances of hitting a home run today are higher than these odds suggest. Sosa to homer (+750) at Hard Rock Bet is the best line available among the top sports betting apps.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
⚾️ More MLB props today
Looking for more? Dive into Mike Spector's Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction.
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Fernando Tatis Jr. to homer
- Jordan Walker to homer
- Edmundo Sosa to homer
Best odds: +26810 via DraftKings
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-65-4 | -16.23 units β | -21.1% β |
| Player props | 9-50-3 | -11.08 units β | -28.8% β |
| Game props | 8-8 | -3.1 units β | -10.7% β |
| Moneylines | 1-1-1 | +0.11 units β | 1.7% β |
| Run lines | 0-1 | -2.36 units β | -100% β |
| Totals | 1-0 | +0.5 units β | 100% β |
| Parlays | 0-5 | -0.3 units β | -100% β |
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