Red Sox vs. Yankees Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Friday, Aug. 28

The best rivalry in Major League Baseball resumes for four games over the weekend as the New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox. My Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction likes the road underdog’s chances of stealing the series opener against AL Cy Young Award candidate Cam Schlittler, with Willson Contreras leading the way offensively. Even though I like Boston to win, it's a Bronx Bomber I’m backing to go deep with the last of my MLB picks.

Opposing Schlittler on the mound is Patrick Sandoval, with first pitch from Yankee Stadium scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET (Apple TV). The Yankees are -165 betting favorites.

⚾ Red Sox vs. Yankees picks & odds today

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🏆 Who will win Red Sox vs. Yankees?

I like Boston’s chances of pulling the upset after having yesterday off while New York could be sluggish after three straight slugfests against the Astros.

Score prediction: Red Sox 3, Yankees 2

💰 Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction & best bet

Red Sox ML (+148)

The AL Cy Young Award race figures to come down to Cam Schlittler and Dylan Cease, but it may surprise some that the Yankees are 1-4 in Schlittler’s last five starts.

Schlittler has pitched to a minuscule 0.96 ERA and .191 OBA in three starts against the Red Sox this year. But Boston also has averaged the second most runs per game since the All-Star Break (5.5), and is an MLB-best 27-12 in that span. 

New York has a reputation for beating up on weaker opponents, as it is under .500 against teams with a winning record (24-25). 

🔥 Best Red Sox vs. Yankees player prop bet

Willson Contreras Over 0.5 RBIs (+207)

If Boston is to pull an upset in this series opener, it will likely need a big game from one of its best sluggers.

Willson Contreras is 1-for-9 in his career against Schlittler. But he is due for positive regression in that split amid his best offensive season in many respects, including his single-season high for home runs. 

Contreras is one of four players with a 125 wRC+ or higher in each month, and his overall 155 wRC+ ranks third among all MLB hitters (min. 300 PA). Much of his success is due to a massive increase in pull air percentage (26.3%), which followed seasons of 12.5%, 15.1%, and 19.8% with the Cubs and Cardinals the last three years. Contreras’ plus-6.5% increase from 2025 to 2026 is the fourth-largest among qualified hitters.

💣 Red Sox vs. Yankees home run prediction

Cody Bellinger to hit a home run (+600)

The Yankees will likely lose Luis Garcia’s bat with a southpaw on the mound, and that’s big considering he was 7-for-10 with three extra-base hits in the first two games of the Houston series. But New York recently got Cody Bellinger back off the IL, and his prowess against left-handed pitching should help fill the void from a power department tonight.

Bellinger is 1-for-3 with a home run and two RBI in a small sample size against Patrick Sandoval. When he homered in his second game back from injury, it snapped a lengthy 32-game homerless drought. But he has some of the best numbers against southpaws among all left-handed batters, and Sandoval just tied a season-high with two homers allowed in his last start.

🚀 Red Sox vs. Yankees same-game parlay

Backing Cody Bellinger to homer would contradict Boston’s moneyline wager too much for this same-game parlay. That is why I am lowering those expectations for him to just record a hit, like he had done in nine straight games and 15 of 16 entering yesterday. Meanwhile, Contreras hasn’t recorded an RBI in four straight games, but he hasn’t gone longer than that with an RBI drought since July 29.

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It isn’t often that one can back a team that has been the best in baseball in the second half of the season at these moneyline odds. But I’m banking on Boston’s familiarity with Schlittler having faced him on three other occasions this season to start tilting the scale in its favor. Even if New York has the pitching edge, the Red Sox hold a slim 5-to-4 season series edge over the Yankees.

📊 Live Red Sox vs. Yankees odds

There is a big 21-cent gap between New York's shortest -149 moneyline odds at bet365 (59.84% implied probability) and its -170 odds at the high end of the market at BetMGM. The Yankees had attracted 58% of the wagers as of early Friday morning.

The total is at 7.5 runs across the market, which is down from an opening number of 7 at several top sports betting sites. The 58/42 betting splits in favor of the Under support that movement, as does the trend that seven or fewer runs have been scored in two of Schlittler's three starts against Boston this season.

📈 Red Sox vs. Yankees betting trends

🚑 Red Sox vs. Yankees injuries

📺 How to watch Red Sox vs. Yankees

• Date: Friday, August 28
• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Yankee Stadium (Bronx)
• Streaming: Apple TV
• Red Sox starter: Patrick Sandoval (1-2, 4.54 ERA)
• Yankees starter: Cam Schlittler (11-6, 2.16 ERA)