⚾ Cardinals vs. Padres Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Thursday, May 7

My Cardinals vs. Padres prediction realizes how hot St. Louis has been, but sides with San Diego given the mismatch on the mound. Liberatore’s inability to keep the ball in the yard is why I find great value with Jackson Merrill to go deep as part of my MLB picks, and for Manny Machado to stuff the stat sheet.

⚾ Cardinals vs. Padres picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.69 units

🏆 Who will win Cardinals vs. Padres?

St. Louis was one of MLB’s hottest teams having won seven of eight games entering Wednesday. But the starting pitching mismatch is too big to ignore, and the Cardinals’ 11-5 road record should regress.

Score prediction: Padres 6, Cardinals 3

💰 Cardinals vs. Padres prediction & best bet

Padres -1.5 (+125)

Prior to St. Louis’ rainout on Tuesday, it was clicking on all cylinders. In a 7-1 stretch, it averaged 5.9 runs, hit 10 home runs, batted .269, owned a plus-18 run differential, and got great starting pitching (3.02 starter ERA) and bullpen production (3.62 reliever ERA).

San Diego was going the other way having lost six of eight. But amid all the recent struggles, the Padres are still 3-2 in King’s last five starts, while he has three quality starts in that span, with the team providing him four runs or fewer of support three times.

🔥 Best Cardinals vs. Padres player prop bet

Manny Machado Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-124)

Matthew Liberatore has reverse splits with much better numbers in every slash line category against right-handed batters. But Machado is still 4-for-6 with four RBIs in a small sample size against the southpaw, and still ranks in the top 70 of all players in RBIs while hitting in an optimal spot in the Padres lineup despite him batting just .207.

Liberatore’s first seven starts this year have been troubling, as he’s on pace for career worsts in strikeout rate and HR/9 rate, while his WHIP and H/9 rate are his worst since his rookie year in 2022. 

Despite the low batting average, Machado is still hitting line drives at the second-highest rate of his career. And his career-best 13.7% walk rate (86th percentile) gives him a chance to score runs if he reaches base that way tonight.

💣 Cardinals vs. Padres home run prediction

Jackson Merrill to hit a home run (+650)

Liberatore has been torched by left-handed hitters this season, allowing a .341/.364/.707 slash line, with half of his eight home runs allowed coming in that split (albeit in 59 fewer at-bats). Liberatore's 5.84 FIP (on pace to be a career worst) is not helped by his troubling 35.2% fly ball rate.

Merrill snapped a 16-game home run drought with a solo blast on Monday. But his only hit in a small six at-bat sample size against Liberatore was a home run, and the fact that he is in the top-third of all players in xSLG makes for him to be a great value play with this wager in an enticing lefty-lefty matchup.

🚀 Cardinals vs. Padres same-game parlay

The three legs of this same-game parlay work well together in that they all help San Diego's cause of winning outright amid an offensive breakout against Liberatore. The only thing I'm changing from my original wagers is Merrill to score a run instead of hitting a home run. Its a safer play given Liberatore's 4.09 road ERA, and one that has cashed in two of the last three games.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Cardinals vs. Padres: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

If San Diego's moneyline odds were more in the -140 to -150 range, I'd back it to win outright. But I'm opting for the better value play with laying the -1.5 runs, as the Padres have cashed the runline in 63.2% of their home games (12-7).

I would totally understand if bettors wanted to go a different route with their home run picks, like even backing a Cardinals hitter, as San Diego has hit just two total home runs against southpaws all season (one from Machado and the other by Miguel Andujar).

📊 Live Cardinals vs. Padres odds

The line has moved away from St. Louis at several top sports betting sites (like going from +140 to +145 at BetMGM) despite the Cardinals being a popular underdog and attracting 42% of the early wagers. That reverse line movement suggests there is sharp action on the home favorites in this series opener. 

The O/U is at 8 runs and standard -110 juice (52.38% implied odds) across the market, and there are no signs of that changing with near dead-even betting splits thus far (53/47 in slight favor of the Over).

📈 Cardinals vs. Padres betting trends

🚑 Cardinals vs. Padres injuries

📺 How to watch Cardinals vs. Padres

• Date: Thursday, May 7
• First pitch: 10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Petco Park (San Diego)
• TV: ESPN
• Streaming: ESPN+
• Cardinals starter: Matthew Liberatore (1-1, 4.50 ERA)
• Padres starter: Michael King (3-2, 2.95 ERA)