Brewers vs. Cubs Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (Tuesday, Sept. 1)
LHP Robert Gasser and LHP Matthew Boyd square off today in the second game of a four-game set as we break down the Brewers vs. Cubs win probability.
The Cubs have a 54% win probability on prediction market apps, but that number should be lower considering how well the Brewers had played entering this series. First pitch from Wrigley Field in Chicago is set for 7:40 p.m. ET (TBS, MLB.TV).
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🏆 Who will win Brewers vs. Cubs? Live MLB win probability
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The Cubs have a 54% win probability, and more than $824,000 has already been traded in this market. Chicago's win probability was as low as 48.5% Monday afternoon, but money has come in on the Cubs as liquidity has increased. Yes contracts on Chicago are available at 55¢, with more than $213,000 in liquidity at that price.
Chicago routed Milwaukee 17-3 in Monday's opener. Alex Bregman hit three home runs, and the Cubs set a franchise record with nine homers on the night. Seiya Suzuki, Tyrone Taylor, Nico Hoerner, Carson Kelly, Matt Shaw, and Michael Conforto each hit one home run. The Cubs are in second place in the NL Central, seven games back of the division-leading Brewers.
Milwaukee has lost back-to-back games after Monday's 14-run defeat, its largest of the season. Cooper Pratt hit a two-run home run in the seventh inning to cut the Brewers' deficit to seven runs. Andrew Vaughn batted in the other run for Milwaukee with a single in the eighth.
My prediction: Brewers win (46¢). I wouldn't overreact to the Brewers suffering their largest loss of the season in Monday's opener. Milwaukee was 10-4 in its past 14 games entering this series and has won 10 of Gasser's last 12 starts.
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💣 Who will hit a home run in Brewers vs. Cubs?
| Player | 1+ HR chance (price) | 2+ HR chance (price) |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 24% (24¢) | 4% (4¢) |
| Seiya Suzuki | 23% (23¢) | 3% (4¢) |
| Jackson Chourio | 22% (22¢) | 3% (3¢) |
| William Contreras | 19% (19¢) | 2% (2¢) |
| Alex Bregman | 18% (18¢) | 2% (2¢) |
| Michael Busch | 16% (16¢) | 2% (2¢) |
| Brice Turang | 10% (10¢) | - |
A Cubs player has hit multiple home runs in each of their last three games (Pete Crow-Armstrong Saturday and Sunday, Bregman Monday), so we're seeing a lot more action in the 2+ HR chance market than usual.
As far as 1+ HR hitters are concerned, Crow-Armstrong has the highest probability at 24% - he's homered five times across his last three games - followed by Suzuki at 23%. Suzuki has homered in two of his last three games and has hit six home runs in each of the last two months.
Jackson Chourio and William Contreras have the highest home run probabilities for the Brewers at 22% and 19%, respectively, followed by Bregman at 18% after his three-homer night Monday.
My prediction: Alex Bregman to hit a home run (18¢). Gasser ranks in the sixth percentile with a 32.8% ground-ball rate, and Bregman is coming off a three-homer night - I don't think letting Bregman put the ball in the air will work out well for Gasser. For more home run analysis, see the rest of my home run predictions today.
⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Brewers vs. Cubs?
More than $38,000 in volume has cleared in this market, with traders projecting a 56% chance of a first-inning run. If you're looking to buy Yes contracts at 56¢, you can instantly get more than $70,000 filled.
The Brewers have had a first-inning run scored in 49% of their games, while the Cubs have seen a first-inning run in 47% of theirs. Both Gasser and Boyd haven't allowed a first-inning run in three of their last four starts.
My prediction: No run in the first inning (45¢). Both Gasser and Boyd have been solid in the first inning of their recent starts, and neither of these teams is profitable on YRFI contracts this season. These prices seem like an overreaction to the Brewers going on a five-game YRFI streak. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our NRFIs today from our MLB expert Dustin Saracini.
📊 Brewers vs. Cubs win expectancy
Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.
| Team | Win expectancy | Opened | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 46% | 50% | ↓ 4% |
| Cubs | 54% | 50% | ↑ 4% |
📺 How to watch Brewers vs. Cubs
- Date: Tuesday, Sept. 1
- First pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Wrigley Field (Chicago)
- TV: TBS
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Brewers starter: Robert Gasser (4-5, 4.59 ERA)
- Cubs starter: Matthew Boyd (8-3, 3.99 ERA)
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