MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds (Tuesday, Sept. 1)
My MLB home run picks are coming off a profitable night, so let's carry that momentum over to Tuesday's 15-game slate. My home run predictions today feature Shohei Ohtani, Ben Rice, and Alex Bregman.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Sept. 1
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani to homer (+259 via DraftKings) | 0.77u β 2u | Ohtani has a .652 xSLG vs. fastballs, which McGreevy throws 51.6% of the time vs. LHH. |
| Ben Rice to homer (+340 via FanDuel) | 0.59u β 2u | Rodriguez throws 55.5% fastballs vs. LHH, and Rice is slugging .632 against that pitch type. |
| Alex Bregman to homer (+474 via DraftKings) | 0.42u β 2u | Bregman slashed .296/.364/.661 with 12 home runs in August. |
Total wagered: 1.78 units | Max profit: 6 units
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Shohei Ohtani (+259)
After a six-game road trip, Ohtani returns home, where he's slugging .561 (compared to .505 on the road). He has a favorable matchup on the mound, too, as he faces Cardinals starter Michael McGreevy.
Ohtani has a .652 expected slugging percentage against fastballs, which is McGreevy's most-used pitch type against left-handed hitters (51.6% usage). Ohtani at home, facing McGreevy, is a great spot, and we're getting inflated odds since he hasn't homered since Aug. 18.
DraftKings' +259 odds are the best available among the top MLB betting sites.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ESPN Unlimited, MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Check the Barrel Rate
McGreevy ranks in the 12th percentile for barrel rate, while Ohtani ranks in the 96th percentile for the same statistic.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Ben Rice (+340)
Rice cashed for us against the Astros last Wednesday, and I'm going back to the well with the Yankees slugger.
He faces Angels starter Grayson Rodriguez today, who throws 55.5% fastballs against left-handed hitters. Luckily for Rice, he's slugging .632 against fastballs, and each of his last two home runs has come against four-seamers.
It'll be 77Β° F with clear skies and 10 mph winds blowing out to center in Anaheim, so there's not much reason to fade the Yankees designated hitter. Rice to homer (+340) at FanDuel is the best line available among the top sports betting sites.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Alex Bregman (+474)
Bregman has been among the hottest hitters in MLB over the past month. He slashed .296/.364/.661 with 12 home runs in August and is coming off a three-homer night against the Brewers on Monday.
He faces Brewers left-hander Robert Gasser today, who ranks in the sixth percentile with a 32.8% ground-ball rate. Bregman's slugging .473 against lefties, and he's probably the last hitter in MLB right now that you want to let put the ball in the air.
Bregman to homer (+474) at DraftKings is the best line available among the top sports betting apps.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: TBS, MLB.TV
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Shohei Ohtani to homer
- Ben Rice to homer
- Alex Bregman to homer
Best odds: +8936 via DraftKings
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-67-4 | -15.07 units β | -19.3% β |
| Player props | 10-52-3 | -9.92 units β | -25.1% β |
| Game props | 8-8 | -3.1 units β | -10.7% β |
| Moneylines | 1-1-1 | +0.11 units β | 1.7% β |
| Run lines | 0-1 | -2.36 units β | -100% β |
| Totals | 1-0 | +0.5 units β | 100% β |
| Parlays | 0-5 | -0.3 units β | -100% β |
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