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MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds for Tuesday, Sept. 8

My best home run predictions today break down the best HR bets for Tuesday's MLB slate.
Matt MacKay
Matt MacKay

Last Updated: September 8, 2026 2:23 PM EDT β€’ 3 minute read

Miami Marlins left fielder Kyle Stowers (28) rounds the bases as we break down our home run predictions today.
Pictured: Miami Marlins left fielder Kyle Stowers (28) rounds the bases as we break down our home run predictions today. Photo by Sam Navarro / Imagn Images.
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MLB has a full 15-game slate on tap for Tuesday, giving us plenty of players to target in home run betting markets. I've got three players who I'll profile and assess for my home run predictions today.

Kyle Stowers leads off my MLB home run picks for tonight's slate. Stowers is red hot in September and draws a favorable matchup against Mets starter Sean Manaea, who has allowed eight home runs across his previous five starts.

⚾ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Sept. 8

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

πŸ’£ Home run pick πŸ’΅ Units πŸ“ Notes
Kyle Stowers (+475 via BetMGM) 0.25u β†’ 1.18u Stowers has recorded 3 home runs since the start of September. 
Gunnar Henderson (+430 via DraftKings) 0.25u β†’ 1.07u Henderson is drawing a favorable matchup against Tanner Bibee, who has allowed 26 home runs in 2026. 
Corbin Carroll (+375 via BetMGM) 0.27u β†’ 1.01u All 7 of Carroll's home runs on the road in 2026 have been against right-handed pitchers. 

Total wagered: 0.77 units | Max profit: 3.26 units

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πŸ’£ Best home run predictions & odds today

Home run pick: Kyle Stowers (+475)

The Miami Marlins may be sliding out of playoff contention, but Kyle Stowers is doing his best at the plate. The Marlins' 1B enters tonight's home stand against the Mets with 3 home runs in September, including 2 homers in his previous 5 starts. 

Stowers couldn't ask for a better matchup against Sean Manaea. Manaea has surrendered 8 home runs in his last 5 starts for the Mets, while ranked in the fifth percentile for barrel rate (11.0) and the 25th percentile for hard-hit percentage (41.3) in 2026.

Bet on Kyle Stowers' home run prop at +475 odds on BetMGM. 

  • Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: TBS/MLB.TV

📡 SBR Edge: Fishin' for the Bleachers

Stowers is a left-handed hitter, giving him a boost in loanDepot park's dimensions, which tends to suppress more home runs for right-handed batters. 

πŸ”₯ More home run predictions today

Home run pick: Gunnar Henderson (+430)

The Orioles need to see Gunnar Henderson return to form if they want to salvage their season. Henderson has enough talent to be a star in Baltimore's lineup, and now, he'll face Tanner Bibee, who has allowed the 11th-most home runs (26) this season.

Henderson is a left-handed hitter and faces Bibee, who throws right-handed, creating an ideal matchup for the Orioles' SS. 8 of Henderson's 11 home runs at Camden Yards have been against right-handed pitchers in 2026. 

Ranked 75th in bat speed and 62nd in hard-hit percentage (42.9), Henderson is in line to end an 8-game home run drought at home tonight. 

Head to DraftKings to bet on Gunnar Henderson's home run prop at +430 odds. 

  • Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: MLB.TV

Home run pick: Corbin Carroll (+375)

My last home run pick on Tuesday's loaded MLB slate is Corbin Carroll. The Diamondbacks' RF has hit 7 home runs on the road this year, all against right-handed pitchers.

The Royals' Michael Wacha is a right-handed pitcher. He's also allowed at least 1 home run in four of his previous five starts. 

Carroll has power at the plate, ranked 86th in hard-hit percentage (48.0) and 88th in avg exit velo (91.8) in 2026. Wacha's pitching has been poor, allowing a 93.2 mph fastball velo. 

Let's return to BetMGM to place a wager on Corbin Carroll's home run prop at +375 odds. 

  • Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: MLB.TV

πŸš€ Best home run parlay picks today

💵 Best MLB home run parlay today

  • Kyle Stowers (+475)
  • Gunnar Henderson (+350)
  • Corbin Carroll (+375)

Best odds: +12191 via BetMGM (0.10u -> 12.19u)

πŸ’΅ My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Sept. 7.

Bet type Record Net profit ROI
Overall 1-3 +0.41 units βœ… 18.82% βœ…
Home run picks 1-2 +0.51 units βœ… 34.67% βœ…
HR parlays 0-1 -0.10 units ❌ -100% ❌
Written by:
Matt MacKay
Matt MacKay has handicapped golf, the NFL, NCAAF, and NHL since joining the sports betting industry as a writer in 2020. He’s worked for several prominent sites, recently expanding his coverage to include sports betting news and the regulatory industry. Bringing a background in communications and writing, earning a Masters Degree in Organizational Communication from Ohio University, Matt has co-hosted a fantasy football and sports betting podcast, while continuously refining his handicapping methods. This includes identifying recent trends, head-to-head statistics, and comparing individual and team strengths and weaknesses to accurately predict the outcome in certain betting markets before a game or event. He’s a daily bettor and tends to wager on FanDuel, with DraftKings and Hard Rock Bet as preferred sports betting app alternatives. An avid researcher, writer, editor, and podcaster, Matt is eager to dig into matchups to offer readers and subscribers value on his picks. He’s a big proponent of building bankroll by avoiding poor betting habits and tendencies, like chasing losses, placing too many wagers, and managing bankroll. His worst beats to date both came on two separate NFL parlays, losing due to Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown dropping passes. NRFIs have quickly become one of Matt’s favorite betting markets, recently diving into MLB game props.

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