MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Sunday, Sept. 6
We’re getting to the time of year when the regular season is ending and we start talking about season-long milestones, and my home run predictions today back two sluggers who have already reached the 30-home run plateau for the season (Rafael Devers and Colson Montgomery).
While Jac Caglianone hasn’t hit 30 homers this season, he was a Home Run Derby participant and is a great value play to add to the portfolio. But since I’m trying to squeeze extra value out of my MLB home run picks, my last wager goes a different route with a young player and recent call-up who has flashed serious power in a small sample size.
⚾ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Sept. 6
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Joshua Baez to hit a home run (+364 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 0.91u | Almost half of Baez’s hits have been home runs |
| Rafael Devers to hit a home run (+313 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 0.78u | Devers' two homers yesterday gave him back-to-back seasons with 35+ |
| Jac Caglianone to hit a home run (+364 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 0.91u | Caglianone looks to get back to the form that earned him AL Player of the Month honors in August |
| Colson Montgomery to hit a home run (+302 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 0.76u | Montgomery has made White Sox history with his 30-home run season |
Total wagered: 1 unit | Max profit: 3.36 units
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💣 Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Joshua Baez (+364)
After belting three home runs in his MLB debut, Joshua Baez has added four since. Eleven of his first 16 hits have gone for extra bases, and power and opposition to hitting singles make the youngster a great value play to go deep at Coors Field.
The Cardinals’ No. 3 prospect has a barrel rate of 14.3% amid a small sample size, which is nearly double the MLB average of 7.6. I like his chances of going deep off Tanner Gordon in the altitude given Gordon’s eighth percentile ground ball rate.
- Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Gordon's Coors Field struggles
Tanner Gordon has pitched to a 7.26 ERA at home with 14 home runs allowed over 48 1/3 innings pitched. That is a stark contrast to his 2.68 ERA and five homers allowed over 40 1/3 innings in road starts.
🔥 More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Rafael Devers (+313)
Rafael Devers entered the weekend with nine home runs and 22 RBI in the previous 19 games. That was the second-most homers and most RBI in MLB since Aug. 16.
Devers' two additional long balls yesterday allowed him to reach 35-plus in back-to-back seasons. He has a great chance to add to that mark when facing Christian Scott, who has allowed nine of his 10 home runs on the season to left-handed batters.
Scott seems to be wearing down as he nears 100 innings pitched. He is coming off an August where he pitched to a 6.04 ERA. If he keeps throwing his four-seam fastball 47.3% of the time, he is due for further regression as opponents are slugging .435 against it.
- Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Jac Caglianone (+364)
Jac Caglianone is amid an eight-game home run drought. Though he went eight games without a homer at one point in August, he still won AL Player of the Month honors for slashing .411/.429/.684 with six home runs, 26 RBI, and a 208 wRC+ in 24 games.
Blue Jays righty Spencer Arrighetti has been torched by left-handed batters all season. He has allowed 11 of his 15 home runs to lefties with an OPS 220 points higher in that split. And he has allowed a home run in each of his three starts with the Blue Jays, while the team is 0-3 with a minus-18 run differential in that span.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Colson Montgomery (+302)
Colson Montgomery became the first White Sox player with a 30-homer and 80-plus RBI season before turning 25 since Frank Thomas in 1991.
When Miguel Vargas joined him in the 30-home run club, he and Montgomery became the first White Sox teammates with 30-plus homers in the same year since Jose Abreu and Eloy Jimenez in 2019. In fact, this marks the second time in franchise history that White Sox teammates were the first to reach 30 home runs across MLB since Jermaine Dye and Jim Thome in 2006.
I like Montgomery’s chances to go yard more than Vargas’ since Bailey Ober has allowed two-thirds of his home runs to left-handed batters (and he has already homered off him in four career at-bats).
- Time: 6:20 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBC/Peacock
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Joshua Baez to hit a home run
- Rafael Devers to hit a home run
- Jac Caglianone to hit a home run
- Colson Montgomery to hit a home run
Best odds: +35645 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 35.6u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 256-421-2 | +50.85 units ✅ | +12.2% ✅ |
| Player props | 157-346 | +33.74 units ✅ | +14.0% ✅ |
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