MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Saturday, Sept. 5

It is rare for hitters to have 50-plus at-bats against an opposing starting pitcher, but Ronald Acuna Jr.’s eye-popping statistics over a large sample size make him a focal point of my home run predictions today, even if he is facing Zack Wheeler.

Wilyer Abreu is another slugger who has belted multiple homers off the starter he is facing today. And to round out my four-pack of MLB home run picks, I opt for two NL Central sluggers, Alex Bregman and Thomas Saggese, who have been red-hot at the plate.

⚾ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Sept. 5

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Home run pick: Wilyer Abreu (+390)

After Baltimore dropped Thursday’s series opener 6-5 to the Red Sox, that made it 2-9 at home in this rivalry since the start of 2025. Wilyer Abreu is a great candidate to help continue Boston’s dominance of the Orioles, as he is 8-for-16 in his career against Chris Bassitt, with half of the hits going for extra bases (including two home runs).

Abreu’s hard-hit percentage may be on pace to drop for the third straight year, but he set the bar high, because his barrel rate and xSLG are in the 81st and 86th percentile, respectively.

• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MLB.TV

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Home run pick: Alex Bregman (+710)

Alex Bregman has come a long way from a slow 102-game start when he batted .234 with 26 extra-base hits. He leads MLB in OPS since July 27 (min. 125 PA), and his two games with three home runs in August were tied for the most in MLB history for a single month. After a torrid August where he hit 12 home runs and logged a 1.025 OPS, he became the sixth active third baseman with 200-plus home runs and 800 or more RBI.

Overall, Bregman entered this series batting .320 with 13 home runs and 33 RBI in his last 25 games, and was a big reason Chicago set an NL record for home runs in a month (62 in August).

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MLB.TV

Home run pick: Ronald Acuna Jr. (+500)

Ronald Acuna Jr. became the fastest to reach 200 home runs and 200 stolen bases, doing so in 904 games (the previous record was Alfonso Soriano who accomplished the feat in 929 games). In the process, he joined Hank Aaron as the only Braves to achieve that milestone.

Acuna Jr. still has a long way to go to get this season’s numbers on par with the .289/.384/.524 slash line, 141 OPS, and 5.7 WAR per 162 games that he averaged from 2018-25. But he has gotten the best of Zack Wheeler in their head-to-head matchups often, with a .538 slugging percentage and two-thirds of his hits going for extra bases (including four home runs).

• Time: 6:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MLB.TV

Home run pick: Thomas Saggese (+900)

This week, Thomas Saggese belted three home runs in a two-game span. That is an impressive power surge considering he had hit four home runs in his previous 134 career games.

Saggese’s home run barrage came at one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in Dodger Stadium, making the trip to the altitude in Coors Field seem like a cakewalk in comparison. He doesn’t have enough at-bats to qualify for any Statcast percentiles, but his 12.7% barrel rate trumps the MLB average of 7.6%.

Mason Adams has allowed a homer in each of his only two appearances. But both were on the road, which raises the ceiling for Cardinals sluggers to hit the ball out of the yard in his first Coors Field appearance.

• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MLB.TV

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All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.