MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Monday, Sep. 7
It's Labor Day, and we've got an 11-game MLB slate that will inevitably lead to home runs on this holiday. I've found three of my favorite home run predictions today, targeting players with plenty of power at the plate in favorable matchups.
For my MLB home run picks, I'm starting with Kazuma Okamoto as my best bet. The Blue Jays' 3B is playing in Sacramento's hitter-friendly ballpark and faces Jacob Lopez, who has allowed 4 home runs on 17 hits in his last 5 starts.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Sep. 7
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Kazuma Okamoto (+375 via bet365) | 0.27u β 1.01u | Okamoto ranks 87th in barrel percentage (12.9) and has 28 home runs for the Blue Jays in 2026. |
| Carter Jensen (+450 via bet365) | 0.25u β 1.12u | Jensen has 3 home runs in his last 4 starts, while ranked 85th in avg exit velo (91.4) this season. |
| Juan Soto (+475 via bet365) | 0.25u β 1.18u | Soto maxes out with 100th percentile xSLG rate (.581) and faces Eury Perez, who has allowed 4 home runs in his last 2 starts. |
Total wagered: 0.77 units | Max profit: 3.33 units
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+375)
Kazuma Okamoto caught my eye in this matchup against Jacob Lopez. Okamoto is in a bit of a slump right now, entering tonight's game on a five-game drought.
Ranked 87th in barrel percentage (12.9), 73rd in avg exit velo (90.5), and 69th in hard-hit rate (43.9) this season, Okamoto has plenty of power to take Lopez deep tonight. He's also playing at a hitter-friendly ballpark, Sutter Health Park, with shallow dimensions and high temperatures.
Lopez ranks in the fourth percentile in fastball velo (90.3) and is in the bottom-30th percentile for chase rate (28.1) and walk rate (11.2). Okamoto is primed to go yard in Sacramento tonight.
Bet on Okamoto's home run prop at +375 odds on bet365.
- Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Southpaw vs. Righty
Jacob Lopez is a left-handed pitcher, while Kazuma Okamoto is a right-handed hitter. This increases the probability of a home run for Okamoto based on a favorable angle.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Carter Jensen (+450)
Carter Jensen has been a catalyst for the Royals' offense down the stretch of the regular season. Kansas City's catcher has 3 home runs in his last 5 starts, and now he'll face Jose Cabrera, who has a 4.88 ERA for the Diamondbacks.
Cabrera has surrendered 4 home runs in his last 5 starts for Arizona. Jensen ranks 85th in avg exit velo (91.4), while also sitting in the 73rd percentile or higher in barrel rate (11.2) and hard-hit percentage (45.0) in 2026.
Despite the Royals' ballpark being a tough environment for home runs, all 3 of Jensen's recent homers came at Kauffman Stadium.
Let's stay on bet365 for the best price and place a wager on Jensen's home run prop at +450 odds.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Juan Soto (+475)
Juan Soto has only been back from his injury for 8 games, but he's still recorded a pair of home runs during this brief return. The Mets' star slugger is in the 100th percentile for xSLG (.548) and the 90th percentile or higher in avg exit velo (92.3) and barrel rate (14.1) this season.
Eury Perez is a prime matchup for Soto at loanDepot park this afternoon. The Marlins' starter has allowed 4 home runs in his last 2 starts, while ranked in the bottom-10 percentile for barrel rate (10.2) allowed in 2026.
- Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Kazuma Okamoto (+375)
- Carter Jensen (+450)
- Juan Soto (+475)
Best odds: +14922 via Sportsbook (0.10u -> 14.92u)
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