⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Wednesday, April 29

No pitcher in Major League Baseball has served up more home runs so far this season than Texas Rangers righty Nathan Eovaldi, and that is a big reason why two of my home run predictions today come from his team’s series finale against MLB’s top home run-hitting team, the New York Yankees.

I also add a safer play on one of MLB’s home run leaders, Yordan Alvarez, who has dominated his head-to-head matchups against Chris Bassitt. The last of my MLB home run picks is more of a value play on a White Sox slugger, but not the one who leads the majors in long balls.

⚾ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds April 29

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

Total wagered: 1.0 units | Max profit: 5.3 units

💣 Best home run prediction today

Yordan Alvarez to hit a home run (+312)

Yordan Alvarez is as safe a home run bet as there is today, as no player has more home runs against today’s opposing pitcher than he does against Chris Bassitt.

Alvarez has torched Bassitt for a .409/.462/.1.136 slash line, with five of his nine hits being home runs. And it’s not like Bassitt can pitch around Alvarez, as he has allowed a .283 batting average and .523 slugging percentage altogether to current Astros hitters.

Alvarez began the week leading all players in every slash line category, and Bassitt is coming off his first two-home run outing.

🔥 More home run picks today

Cody Bellinger to hit a home run (+525)

Cody Bellinger is just 2-for-14 in his career against Nathan Eovaldi, but the righty allowed a career-high tying four home runs in his last start, including three on his first seven pitches. That brought his HR/9 rate to a troubling 2.5, as opponents are slugging 1.000 against his four-seamer compared to .457 last season.

With Eovaldi having allowed an MLB-worst nine home runs, that provides value for Bellinger to go deep, especially since left-handed batters have a 1.027 OPS against Eovaldi this season.

Eight of the nine home runs Eovaldi has served up has been to lefties, so I expect Bellinger’s 75th percentile xSLG to pay off in him ending a nine-game home run drought.

Josh Jung to hit a home run (+760)

Josh Jung has incredible splits since 2023 which highlight his progression. Before being injured in 2023, he played 109 games while slashing .274/.323/.489, and producing a 122 wRC+. In 190 games from Sept. 2023-25, he slashed .250/.291/.390 with a 91 wRC+. But entering this week, he played 25 games, while slashing .308/.360/.560 with a 153 wRC+.

Among those with a minimum of 80 plate appearances, Jung began the week tied for eighth in OPS+. He was also third in OPS (1.123) since the start of April (min. 65 PA), and had the fourth-highest sweet spot % since the start of 2023 (min. 1,000 PA). Lastly, against non-fastballs, Jung’s .410 batting average and .718 slugging percentage each ranked fifth.

Miguel Vargas to hit a home run (+525)

After allowing eight-plus runs for the third consecutive day on Monday, the Angels ranked dead-last in the majors with a 6.97 ERA and 15th with a 1.22 HR/9 rate over the previous seven days. 

Now they send arguably their least consistent starting pitcher, Yusei Kikuchi, to the mound, who has a rotation-worst 6.21 ERA. That ERA balloons to 8.00 on the road, along with a .303 OBA.

All three of Kikuchi's homers allowed have come on the road. That makes Miguel Vargas a value play with his 36.6% fly ball rate, despite the White Sox entering the series averaging 0.6 home runs per game at home compared to 1.6 home runs per game on the road.

🚀 Best home run parlay picks today

Three of the four picks involved in this home run parlay have either identified starting pitchers who have struggled to keep the ball in the yard, or who have struggled against a specific player (i.e. Bassit against Alvarez). With the Jung pick, there was simply too much value there on a player who ranks in the top 10 in most power categories offensively over the last three seasons, and who is facing a pitcher making his MLB debut in the Yankees' Elmer Rodriguez.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting MLB home run picks today

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

In an effort to keep my four total home run picks to a total of one unit of my bankroll, I thought about backing Yordan Alvarez with more than 0.25 units, while being more conservative with the Josh Jung pick as he is facing a pitcher making his MLB debut. Ultimately I decided to do what I've done all season and make every play the same 0.25-unit wager, as the formula has worked and is a big reason I've profited nearly 20 units on player props this season.

Given Eovaldi's struggles to keep the ball in the yard, I certainly wouldn't put anyone off adding more Yankees sluggers to their home run portfolios, with Ben Rice specifically being a great value play at +346 odds.