⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Saturday, April 25

Rain is expected to impact several Major League Baseball games today, especially in the Northeast, so my home run predictions today are centered around games with nicer weather forecasts or climate controlled environments.

Four of the league’s 10 worst qualified pitchers in terms of HR/9 rate allowed entering the weekend toe the rubber today, so my MLB home run picks find a slugger to oppose all of them. With that comes some of the sport’s least surprising names like Ben Rice and Shea Langeliers, but also allows for opportunities for value plays on less heralded hitters like Agustin Ramirez.

⚾ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds April 25

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

Total wagered: 1.0 units | Max profit: 5.86 units

💣 Best home run prediction today

Ben Rice to hit a home run (+325)

Astros righty Mike Burrows has made five starts this season and allowed multiple home runs in two of them. While he has also survived two other starts at Daikin Park without allowing a home run, those came against the light-hitting Cardinals and Red Sox (who rank 14th and 29th, respectively, in home runs).

Burrows has allowed a 1.034 OPS to left-handed batters, with four of his five long balls surrendered in that split. Meanwhile, Ben Rice homered in four straight games before being shut out at Fenway Park, and got back on track yesterday with a homer while maintaining elite barrel and hard-hit rates in the 96th percentile or better.

🔥 More home run picks today

Josh Naylor to hit a home run (+720)

Cardinals southpaw Matthew Liberatore has reverse splits, with a much more difficult time against left-handed batters than righties this season. Lefties are slashing .385/.407/.808 against Liberatore, which pales in comparison to his .333 slugging allowed to righties.

Liberatore has allowed a 1.67 HR/9 rate (ninth-worst among qualified starters), with 13.2% of his fly balls leaving the ballpark. 

Naylor hit his third home run yesterday, and now has only homered in two total games. But his 14.5 degree launch angle (on-pace for a career-high) and 77th percentile squared up percentage make Naylor a great candidate for continued positive regression in the power department.

Agustin Ramirez to hit a home run (+800)

Robbie Ray has been as consistent as they come in serving up long balls, as he has allowed at least one home run in four of five starts. That brought his HR/9 rate to 1.59, 10th-worst among qualified pitchers entering the weekend. Ray has also allowed 10 extra-base hits (five doubles and five home runs), and all have been by right-handed batters. 

Each of Agustin Ramirez’ two home runs have come within the last 10 games after slashing .214/.313/.304 through the first 15. 

Ray’s three worst fly ball rates have come each of the last three seasons. And with 12.2% of his career-worst 40.3% fly balls leaving the yard, this is great value for Ramirez to homer.

Shea Langeliers to hit a home run (+498)

Shea Langeliers is one of two active Athletics hitters that has homered in their career off MacKenzie Gore. He is 2-for-7 against the southpaw, who not only has a troubling 1.73 HR/9 rate, but who also has the second-worst home run per fly ball rate among qualified starters (23.8% of fly balls hit off Gore have left the yard).

Langeliers has hit three of his eight home runs off of left-handed pitchers (in 56 fewer at-bats than against righties), and ranks in the 80th percentile or better in barrels, launch angle sweet spot percentage, and xSLG. His 37.7% fly ball rate is on pace to crush his previous high for a season (31.2% in 2023), which provides great value for him to hit his ninth home run in his 24th career game at Globe Life Field.

🚀 Best home run parlay picks today

All four legs of this home run parlay include players who are facing starting pitchers that rank among the worst qualified starters in terms of home runs allowed per nine innings, and two have already homered off the opposing starter in their careers. In the case of Rice being my best home run prediction today, I am banking on him entering another hot streak coming off yesterday's home run, as he has homered in consecutive games four times this season.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting MLB home run picks today

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

As usual I'm risking a conservative 0.25 units of my bankroll on each of my home run picks. Given how volatile the home run market is, I love the position I'm in with only needed to hit on one of these four plays in order to turn a profit for today.

With the wager on Agustin Ramirez, think of it as a value play on top of facing a home run prone pitcher, as no other top sports betting site offered better than +550 odds (15.38% implied probability), making for outstanding value on the +800 odds at BetMGM.