⚾ MLB Player Props Today: Best Bets & Prop Picks for Wednesday, April 15
I bet on Kyle Bradish to go Over his strikeout total earlier this morning as part of my home run and strikeout bets on X, but with that being the early game today, I dug into the latter parts of Wednesday's schedule to deliver two MLB player props today. Along with my home run predictions today, we have enough action to keep you invested all evening.
We have two sweaty Unders here, as both guys have a strikeout total at 3.5. However, the projections back both bets, so I'm riding with them.
I've added one more pick to form my three-leg parlay, which comes in at +738.
βΎ MLB player props today: Best prop bet picks for April 15
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| βΎ Player prop | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Paddack Under 3.5 strikeouts (-115 via bet365) | 0.5u β 0.93u | Braves rank in top five in terms of K rate |
| Emerson Hancock Under 3.5 strikeouts (+135 via bet365) | 0.5u β 1.18u | Padres own third-best K rate in the league |
Total wagered: 1 unit | Max profit: 1.11 units
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π° Best MLB player prop bet today
Chris Paddack Under 3.5 strikeouts (-115)
Simply put, Chris Paddack is not good. You know who's good? The Atlanta Braves hitters at avoiding strikeouts. They rank fourth in baseball in terms of strikeout rate, and they own the third-best wRC+. Paddack is in for a short, painful evening.
The projections back that up, too. Based on Paddack's most optimistic projection, this is better than 13% +EV. Based on a different projection, it's better than 21%. It's a bit sweaty, since the total is relatively low, but I feel comfortable betting half of a unit on this when factoring in this year's data and Paddack's projection.
📡 SBR Edge: Know your limits
I have only one full-unit strikeout prop today, because they haven't been going especially well lately and there wasn't a ton that I loved on the oddsboard today. I added these two, but only at 0.5 units each.
π₯ More MLB player prop picks
Emerson Hancock Under 3.5 strikeouts (+135)
I'm fading Emerson Hancock for similar reasons. I don't think he's as good as his numbers suggest, and the San Diego Padres are even better than the Braves at avoiding strikeouts.
Seattle Mariners ace Bryan Woo managed only three punchouts over seven innings last night, and Hancock will need more than that here. Additionally, we're getting incredible odds. Because this is trading at +135, even the most optimistic projection on Hancock makes this better than 25% +EV, while another has it closer to 40%.
π Best MLB parlay picks today
I'm combining my two strikeout props and adding one more at DraftKings. The implied probability of these odds is 11.93%, so I've wagered 0.2 units ($25) on it myself. We're still looking for our first sweep on the player props this season.
💵 Best MLB parlay bet today
- Chris Paddack Under 3.5 strikeouts (-134)
- Emerson Hancock Under 3.5 strikeouts (+113)
- Randy Vasquez Over 4.5 strikeouts (+128)
Best odds: +738 via DraftKings (0.20u -> 1.68u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-104 | -20.82 units β | -31.6% β |
| Strikeouts | 15-25 | -10.50 units β | -27.5% β |
| Parlays | 1-23 | -1.25 units β | -50.4% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB player props today (April 15)
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I wager one full unit on all my main player prop bets, which you can also find on X. In order for a bet to qualify as one of my full-unit picks, it needs to be at least 20% +EV through two separate projection models.
I'll sometimes add bets on hitting or pitching prop markets that I feel less comfortable betting a full unit on, so I'll limit those to 0.4 units. Today, I've met right in the middle at 0.5 units for these two.
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