Astros vs. Phillies Picks, Predictions World Series Game 3: Who Does Rainout Favor?
Monday’s rainout changed the starting pitching matchup for Game 3 of the World Series between the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies, but who do the changes benefit? Read on for our Astros-Phillies MLB picks.
Houston is the fifth team to have at least a five-run lead in each of the first two games of the World Series, per ESPN Stats & Info. In each of the previous four instances, those teams went on to win it all. Will the Astros take the next step in repeating that history? The Phillies will have something to say about that, as they look to keep their undefeated home postseason record intact.
Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Tuesday’s World Series Game 3 between the Astros and Phillies (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Astros vs. Phillies Game Info
Date: Tuesday, Nov. 1, 8:03 p.m. ET
Location: Citizens Bank Park,
Philadelphia, PA
Weather: 68 degrees, 21% chance of precipitation, 8-mph W wind
Astros vs. Phillies Odds
Astros vs. Phillies Odds Analysis
Houston has been bet up from -118 to -126 moneyline favorites. Sharp action is on the Astros, who have attracted 60% of the bets and 75% of the cash.
DraftKings is the only sportsbook offering a total of eight runs, as all other sportsbooks are at 7.5 with varying levels of juice. The Over has attracted 93% of the bets and 100% of the cash thus far.
Astros vs. Phillies Projected Pitchers
Lance McCullers Jr. (4-2, 2.27 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) vs. Ranger Suarez (10-7, 3.65 ERA, 1.33 WHIP)
Lance McCullers was limited to eight starts this year after a flexor tendon injury in his right forearm prevented him from joining the rotation until mid-August. He threw 100 pitches in his only postseason start this season, allowing three earned runs on eight hits in five innings of a 6-5 series-clinching win in Game 4 of the ALCS against the New York Yankees.
Ranger Suarez gets the start in Game 3 after the rainout in place of the previously scheduled Noah Syndergaard. Suarez threw a career-high 155 1/3 innings this year, and his numbers across the board (ERA, WHIP, H/9, FIP, HR/9, K/9) are all worse than last season. However, he showed good strike-zone command, ranking eighth in the league with 58 walks.
Suarez was removed after 3 1/3 innings in his first postseason start in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Atlanta Braves, then followed that up with an outing of five innings and two hits (one earned run) against the San Diego Padres.
Astros vs. Phillies Picks
Astros vs. Phillies ML Pick
Astros (-120) ★★★
Houston has Philadelphia in its worse batting split in this game, as the Phillies hit lefties better than righties all season. Against southpaws, the Phillies had a 115 wRC+, .335 wOBA, .324 BABIP, and a .769 OPS. When facing right-handed pitching, those numbers dipped to 102 wRC+, .316 wOBA, .289 BABIP, and .727 OPS.
The Astros became the first team in World Series history to start a game with three consecutive extra-base hits. And their offense which always seemed to feed off of the table setter, Jose Altuve, has seemingly responded to his resurgence. Altuve went 3-for-4 in Game 2 after starting the postseason 4-for-37. Houston's lineup becomes much more dangerous if Altuve continues his hot hitting.
Astros vs. Phillies O/U Pick
Over 7.5 (-115) ★★★★★
Though Suarez is a much more trusted pitcher than Syndergaard, we're not sure moving Suarez up benefits the Phillies. Since Aug. 1, Houston led the league by a wide margin in wRC+ versus lefties (147), along with a league-leading wOBA (.373) and OPS (.865) in that span.
Houston became the first team to tag Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler for five runs apiece in consecutive starts, and Suarez is not in the same stratosphere talent-wise as those two.
We are thrilled to make this wager at FanDuel despite the high juice, as we would only need eight runs to cash this wager but nine or more to cash at all other sportsbooks.
Astros vs. Phillies Prop Pick
McCullers to record win (+210) ★★
McCullers is not afraid of the moment, as he has a solid career 2.77 postseason ERA. McCullers was knocked around for eight hits in his last start against the Yankees, but that speaks to Dusty Baker's old-school managing style, as he stuck with his horse and let him complete five innings.
Current Phillies are a combined .214 with a .576 OPS against McCullers, and there is a good chance Houston has the lead after five innings if that is as far as he goes Tuesday.
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Astros-Phillies picks made 11/1/2022 at 6:04 a.m. ET.
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