Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks, Predictions, Odds 2023: Rahm, McIlroy, Scheffler Lead Elevated Field

The third elevated PGA Tour event in a four-week span sees Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, and Scottie Scheffler high atop the odds board once again for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Read on as we offer our top Arnold Palmer Invitational picks and predictions based on the best golf odds.

Scheffler will look to mirror his success of a year ago in winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational just a few weeks after claiming victory in the WM Phoenix Open. To do so, he'll need to take down a field that once again includes Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, and the rest of the PGA Tour's best golfers as they compete for their share of the $20 million purse.

Rahm returned to No. 1 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) with his victory at The Genesis Invitational two weeks ago. That was a position briefly held by Scheffler following the Phoenix Open. McIlroy was in the pole position to begin the 2023 calendar year after reclaiming the top spot with his win in the fall's CJ Cup.

Check out our top Arnold Palmer Invitational picks and predictions as we preview the tournament and assess the odds from our best sportsbooks.  

Arnold Palmer Invitational picks

• Rory McIlroy (+900 via BetMGM)
• Will Zalatoris (+2200 via PointsBet)
• Sam Burns (+6000 via DraftKings)

Check out our Puerto Rico Open picks and predictions!

Arnold Palmer Invitational odds 2023

Check out our Players Championship odds, Masters odds, PGA Championship odds, U.S. Open odds, and Open Championship odds.

Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge course profile

Par: 72
Length: 7,466 yards
Greens: Bermuda
Architect: Dick Wilson (renovations by Arnold Palmer)

The primary defense of Bay Hill Club & Lodge is water hazards, as golf fans and bettors witnessed last week at PGA National. Water is a principal hazard on nine holes. Those often came into play last year with strong winds and firm terrain. The average score in the final round each of the past two years was over 75 as an indication of how difficult this course can be tailored to play. Scheffler's winning 72-hole score of minus-5 last year was the second in three years but also just the second since 2011 to be worse than 10-under par.

While much of the course is relatively flat, many of the greens are heavily sloped and require elite iron play on approach to the putting surfaces. Bunkers guard most greens and landing spots in fairways that aren't already protected by water.

As one would expect given the difficult conditions and the high winning score last year, only four holes played below par for the tournament. Predictably, those were each of the four par 5s which combined to yield 42 eagles. The par 5s range from 511 to 590 yards, while the par 3s range from 199 to 231 yards with only one ace scored last year. The most common range among the 10 par 4s is 450-500 yards with five such holes.

Arnold Palmer Invitational key stats

• Strokes gained: approach
• SG: off-the-tee
• SG: tee-to-green
• Proximity: 175-200 yards
• Bogey avoidance
• Par-5 scoring

Bay Hill is a ball strikers' course that requires distance and accuracy off the tee, as well as precise iron play. Scoring needs to be done on the four par 5s, and avoiding bogey (or worse) everywhere else is the main goal.

The key range to target for approach shots is from 175-200 yards based on the average landing spots and layups in the fairways. Putting on fast Bermuda greens can also be considered but keep in mind that success with the putter is highly volatile from week to week and we're only one event into the Florida swing and these putting surfaces in 2023.

Course history and success on comparable courses, including TPC Scottsdale, TPC Boston, and PGA National, can also be considered. The elite field for this event and those that typically play at those venues need to be taken into account.

Arnold Palmer Invitational picks and predictions

Rory McIlroy (+900 via BetMGM)

If the PGA Tour's first two elevated events of 2023 — the WM Phoenix Open and The Genesis Invitational — taught us anything, it's that the top names are showing up to win these events. As a result of this becoming public knowledge, we're seeing an even higher percentage of the public betting than usual come flooding in on the top names in the field.

As expected, McIlroy's odds to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational have dropped as of Wednesday morning, but he remains my top pick to win this. He's a former champion of this event and had five straight top-10 finishes at Bay Hill before last year's T-13 showing. Those who've watched Netflix's Full Swing also would've seen how much winning the PGA Tour's marquee events means to the Northern Irishman. Expect a similar performance to the 2022 Tour Championship in honor of Mr. Palmer. 

Statistically, McIlroy has averaged 2.64 true strokes gained on the field per round across 32 career laps of Bay Hill. He's ninth on the PGA Tour for the 2022-23 season in SG: approach, 10th in SG: off-the-tee, first in SG: tee-to-green, ninth in proximity from 175-200 yards, and fifth in par-5 scoring. 

Will Zalatoris (+2200 via PointsBet)

We saw Zalatoris priced as high as +4000 to win The Genesis Invitational just two weeks ago while questions continued to swirl regarding the back injury that forced him to withdraw from the 2022 FedEx Cup Playoffs. A fourth-place finish in an elevated field by the seventh-ranked golfer in the world has clearly dispelled some of those concerns. While he's among the most commonly bet golfers to win this week his odds have yet to be adjusted as of Wednesday morning and I'm staying on this bet.

Now, Zalatoris is priced with much more conservative odds for the Arnold Palmer Invitational and is among our top picks to win once again. The 26-year-old California debuted at Bay Hill with a T-10 finish in this event in 2021 before a weather-derailed T-38 finish last year (final round of plus-7, 79).

Zalatoris is gaining strokes in every key metric early in the 2022-23 PGA Tour season. He's sixth in SG: off-the-tee and 22nd in SG: tee-to-green per round, as well as eighth in bogey avoidance and fourth in par-5 scoring average. The +2200 odds are the best that are available as of Monday afternoon, but there's a chance this number could rise by Thursday morning with Rahm, McIlroy, and Scheffler likely to command the bulk of the public betting handle once again.

Sam Burns (+6000 via DraftKings)

I've doubled and now tripled down on betting Burns as one of my favorite picks to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational. After opening around +4500, Burns is now priced as high as +6000 and I'm preparing to ride my many tickets to early retirement.

It's definitely risky targeting anyone with odds this high this week but the number doesn't match the golfer in this case. Burns, the 14th-ranked golfer in the world, had a career-best T-9 finish in the Arnold Palmer Invitational last year. That followed a missed cut in 2021 after making it to the weekend in each of his first three appearances at Bay Hill.

Though Burns missed the cut in The Genesis Invitational, he tied for sixth in the WM Phoenix Open the week prior against essentially the same field. That followed a quality T-11 finish in The American Express.

Burns averaged 0.94 true strokes gained: approach in this event last year, to go with 1.49 SG: putting per round. I like that familiarity and his success on the greens to help counteract some uncharacteristically lackluster play off the tee so far this season.

Arnold Palmer Invitational power rankings

Arnold Palmer Invitational power rankings courtesy or Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker.

10. Will Zalatoris

Patience will pay off with Zalatoris. His ball-striking wizardry was back on full display at The Genesis two weeks ago, but I’m not convinced he’s in top form just yet. I’m anticipating Bay Hill to prove to be a second stepping stone for Zalatoris fine-tuning his game in an attempt to peak for the majors stretch.

9. Chris Kirk

Don’t sleep on the 16-year tour veteran. Kirk is dialed in with ranks of 10th in true SG: putting, 11th in SG: approach and 13th in SG: tee-to-green in this field across his past 13 measured rounds. He’s also recorded three top-five finishes in his past four events, including winning last week at the demanding PGA National. Kirk’s been a rock star at Bay Hill with four consecutive top-15 finishes, too.

8. Tommy Fleetwood

I’m anticipating Fleetwood following up his solid T-20 showing at The Genesis by stringing together four solid rounds at the API this week. This will be the Englishman’s seventh trip to Bay Hill, and he’s turned in three top-10 finishes and played the weekend in five of six visits. Fleetwood also boasts respectable ranks of 15th in both true SG: approach and SG: tee-to-green and impressively sits sixth in true SG: around-the-green in this field across his past 38 measured rounds.

7. Jason Day

A lot has changed since Day won the 2016 edition of the API, and perhaps most notably, he only took home a smooth $1.134 million. Fast forward over half a decade, and the Aussie is playing his best golf in years. Day has three consecutive top-10 finishes in loaded-field events, and he ranks third in true SG: putting and 16th in SG: tee-to-green in this field across his past 16 measured rounds. Bringing it full circle, the cheque for this year’s API winner is $3.6 mil. 

6. Collin Morikawa

Morikawa is one of the easiest players to handicap in golf. We never have to worry about his ball-striking, it’s just a matter of whether or not he treads water with his short game. The proof is in the pudding, and outside of a hiccup at the Waste Management, he’s shown excellent touch in his other three appearances this year carding a runner-up, solo third and T-6.

5. Max Homa

It’s been over a year since Homa’s missed a cut in the United States, and he’s added a win at The Farmers and two more top-five finishes through his past four events. He’s also posted a top-25 result in each of his three trips to Bay Hill and checks all the statistical boxes. Oddsmakers are accurately listing him among the elite players.

4. Scottie Scheffler

The defending champion paces the PGA Tour in bogey avoidance, and that could prove to be an important trait again this week with Bay Hill’s demanding layout and potentially windy conditions. It’s also encouraging that Scheffler is third in scoring average despite poor work on and around the greens. I’m expecting statistical correction to his 95th-ranked SG: putting (.061) and 68th-ranked SG: around-the-green (1.54) after posting respective .202 and .300 marks last season. 

3. Tyrrell Hatton

A horse for course, Hatton has played the weekend in all six trips to Bay Hill, and he won here in 2020, finished runner-up last year and also carded a fourth-place finish in 2017. Most encouraging, the 31-year-old Englishman has improved his ball-striking this season and ranks 18th in SG: tee-to-green and 17th in true SG: tee-to-green in this field across his past 20 rounds. I’m expecting Hatton to be a popular target for poolies and punters.

2. Rory McIlroy

It’s easy to overlook that McIlroy has won four of the past 15 worldwide events he’s played because of his recent underwhelming showings at The Genesis and WM Phoenix Open. He lost strokes on the greens in both those tournaments, and if a few more putts fall this week, he’ll be on the shortened Sunday leaderboard. This is a track fit for McIlroy, too. He has seven top-15 results in eight trips to Bay Hill, including winning in 2018.

1. Jon Rahm

It’s a testament to how dominant Rahm has been that my lone nitpick entering the API is that he’s only played Bay Hill competitively once. On the flip side, a solo T-17 result in last year’s event while finishing third in SG: tee-to-green probably just reinforces the legitimacy of his status as the consensus betting favorite. If Rahm’s on his game, it’ll take a special 72 holes from someone else to beat him.

Arnold Palmer Invitational expert picks

Arnold Palmer Invitational expert picks made by Neil Parker and Shane Jackson.

 Arnold Palmer Invitational expert picks to win

Tyrrell Hatton (+3500 via FanDuel)

Bay Hill Club & Lodge has consistently been one of the toughest tests on the PGA Tour circuit, and Hatton boasts a sterling track record at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. His 2020 victory is complemented by a co-runner-up finish last year and a fourth-place result in 2017. The Englishman has also played the weekend in all six of his appearances in this event.

I’m encouraged by Hatton's recent ball-striking form, too. Hatton ranks 18th in SG: tee-to-green and 17th in true SG: tee-to-green in this field across his past 20 rounds. He also finished second in SG: putting in last year’s event and has gained strokes on the greens in five of his six trips to Bay Hill.

Considering Hatton is trading as low as +2800 through Caesars, we’re also grabbing an edge with a positive expected value of 22% by turning to the +3500 number via FanDuel. While it’s a stacked field this week, several of the brand-name players above Hatton on the odds lists can’t match his experience or ability to navigate this tough track in demanding conditions. - Parker

Justin Thomas (+3000 via DraftKings)

I’m taking the bait. Thomas has drifted too far down the board by Wednesday that his 30/1 price tag is the most appealing in the outright market. This number can only be found at DraftKings or PointsBet, with every other one of our best sports betting sites sitting shorter than 30/1.

Thomas hasn’t played on this course since 2015, so there are obvious concerns with his profile heading into this loaded tourney. He comes in with solid form, with a T-25 finish or better in four consecutive events. He lost nearly three strokes with his approach play last time out at The Genesis Invitational, but I’m betting on his iron play bouncing back.

While showers aren’t in the forecast this week, weather could have an impact on this tournament due to high winds. With wind being an issue on a tougher course, I say we should expect the unexpected. And it feels like we are all counting out Thomas during a weekend where things could get turned upside down. - Jackson

Arnold Palmer Invitation expert long-shot picks

Tommy Fleetwood (+7000 via FanDuel)

FanDuel has Fleetwood mispriced this week, and I even peg the +6000 odds available through DraftKings and PointsBet as favorable. The Englishman played the weekend in five of his six trips to Bay Hill, and he’s also carded three top-10 finishes.

Add Fleetwood’s solid T-20 showing at The Genesis, and I’m expecting his strong play to continue at another difficult track where he’s had past success. Fleetwood also picked up a DP World Tour victory at the Nedbank Golf Challenge in November and checks out statistically. He ranks 15th in both true SG: approach and SG: tee-to-green and impressively sits sixth in true SG: around-the-green in this field across his past 38 measured rounds.

The inflated odds through FanDuel also present a positive expected value of 14% over the number DraftKings and PointsBet are hanging. Finally, given Fleetwood’s success in this event, there is a hedge opportunity by adding a top-finish wager to your portfolio. FanDuel also offers the best number in the top-20 market with Fleetwood trading at an attractive +240. - Parker

Shane Lowry (+6500 via FanDuel)

It looks like I’m throwing out course history this week. In fairness, this year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational figures to be a bit more competitive than recent years and perhaps we shouldn’t put too much stock in recent tourney results. At least I hope that’s the case.

Lowry has missed three cuts in his last five tries at this event, but this really does feel like a place where he’d find success. Similar to his T-5 finish at the Honda Classic last weekend, Lowry needs to avoid trouble and labor through unfavorable conditions throughout the weekend.

The Irishman is capable of doing that again, at least more than his 65/1 price tag via FanDuel would suggest. This is the best value on Lowry, who is listed around 50/1 at most other sportsbooks. It feels like a good weekend to root for Shane, in my humble opinion. - Jackson

Arnold Palmer Invitational expert prop picks

Rickie Fowler to finish top 20 (+230 via FanDuel)

There’s been notable line movement in the outright odds for Fowler this week. He was trading in the +8000 range Monday, and he’s down to +5500 or +5000 across all of our best sportsbooks as of Wednesday morning. I have a ticket for him to win it all, but a top-20 bet is the better play.

Fowler’s found his game again, and in particular, he’s putting the golf ball far better than he has the past two seasons. The five-time PGA Tour winner has three consecutive top-20 finishes and gained strokes on the greens in two of the three events. For comparison, he lost .253 strokes per round last year and ranked 161st in SG: putting.

Still, most encouraging is his familiarity with Bay Hill and his recent ball-striking form. Fowler has only missed the cut once in 11 trips to the API, and he ranks third in true SG: approach and 11th in SG: tee-to-green in this field across his past 17 measured rounds.

We’re also landing a notable edge placing this wager through FanDuel, with a positive expected value of 14% over the +190 number via DraftKings and PointsBet. - Parker

Will Zalatoris to finish top 10 (+230 via FanDuel)

After being a bit contrarian with my two outright picks, I’ll join the masses to root for Zalatoris this week. He appears to be the most popular outright pick this weekend, according to GolfTipsChecker on Twitter. And for good reason.

Zalatoris had some health concerns last time out, but quickly put that to bed with a fourth-place finish at Riviera. He’s back and built to win a tourney where the winning score isn’t going to be too many strokes under par. Zalatoris recorded a T-10 finish here just two years ago, and we all remember seeing how close he came in the biggest events last season.

I’ll bet on him being in the mix come Sunday once again. DraftKings and FanDuel are aligned with a +230 offering on Zalatoris to finish inside the top 10, but feel free to monitor his live outright odds, and be ready to pounce when it gets back to a reasonable number. - Jackson

Arnold Palmer Invitational info

When: Thursday, March 2 - Sunday, March 5
Where: Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge, Orlando, FL
How to watch: Golf Channel, NBC

Recent Arnold Palmer Invitational winners

How to watch the Arnold Palmer Invitational

The Arnold Palmer Invitational will be broadcasted on Golf Channel and NBC, with PGA Tour Live on ESPN+ streaming exclusive early-round and featured group coverage.

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