UCF vs. Duke Odds, Picks, Predictions College Football: Will Transfers Play a Role in Military Bowl?

Check our best UCF vs. Duke picks for the Military Bowl based on the top college football odds.

Henry John

Last Updated: December 28, 2022 6:17 AM EST • 4 minute read

The 2022 Military Bowl kicks off another full day of college football bowl game action with a 2 p.m. ET kickoff. Will the UCF Knights survive transfer departures to take down the Duke Blue Devils? Check out our top UCF-Duke college football picks based on the best NCAAF odds.

For UCF (7-6 against the spread, 6-7 Over/Under), it’s hard to view this bowl game as anything but a consolation prize. Had the Knights won the AAC Championship Game, they would be playing in a New Year’s Six Bowl. Instead, they came up short against Tulane and had to settle for second in the conference. Several UCF players have gone into the transfer portal since the season concluded.

Meanwhile, Duke (8-4 ATS, 5-6-1 O/U) was one of the biggest surprises in all of college football this year. Head coach Mike Elko inherited a program that had won just five games combined over the last two seasons. The Blue Devils outdid that with eight wins in his first year at the helm to return to the postseason for the first time since 2018.

Here is our pick for the Military Bowl matchup between UCF and Duke (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Check out our college football best bets and all of bowl season odds and picks.

UCF vs. Duke Game Info

Date: Wednesday, Dec. 28, 2 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, MD
Weather: 41 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 8-mph S winds

UCF vs. Duke Odds

UCF vs. Duke Odds Analysis

As of Wednesday morning, the consensus opening spread of Duke -2.5 had flipped to the have Blue Devils laying 3 points as favorites. While 61% of the tickets are backing Duke, those account for a more modest 51% of the betting handle.

The Over/Under has ticked up slightly from the opening line of 61.5 to 62 by the morning of game day. The Over has drawn 70% of the tickets and 65% of the cash.

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UCF vs. Duke Pick

Duke -3.5 ⭐⭐⭐

Sadly, a major part of the Military Bowl handicap revolves around the players who won’t be suiting up for Wednesday’s game. In this case, all of the key absences are on the UCF side of the equation.

The first glaring unknown for the Knights is at quarterback. Starter John Rhys Plumlee was battling both shoulder and hamstring injuries down the stretch of the regular season. Initially, UCF turned to sophomore backup Mikey Keene to replace him. Keene actually put an end to that himself by refusing to play in the American Championship Game in order to avoid burning his redshirt. He has since entered the transfer portal.

If Plumlee is deemed unfit to play in the bowl game, bettors should anticipate freshman Thomas Castellanos getting the start. The UCF offense was completely inept with Castellanos under center in the AAC title game loss. As such, it will be a massive downgrade if the Knights are forced to rely solely on him in the Military Bowl.

In addition to the quarterback conundrum, UCF lost its top receiver, best linebacker, and a starting corner to the transfer portal. While Gus Malzahn’s team is loaded with question marks, Duke comes into this game without any notable opt-outs or transfer portal departures.

Regardless of one’s opinion of the ACC as a conference this season, there’s no denying that Duke blew past expectations. QB Riley Leonard had a terrific year, and the Blue Devils’ defense excelled at forcing turnovers.

UCF vs. Duke Best Odds

FanDuel (-105)

DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	PointsBet
-3.5	-3.5	-3.5	-3.5	-3.5
(-110)	(-105)	(-110)	(-110)	(-110)

As of Monday afternoon, there is very little variation on this point spread across the betting market. With all major sportsbooks favoring Duke by 3.5 points, odds shopping boils down to discrepancies in the price.

While the vast majority of shops requiring bettors to lay the standard price of -110, FanDuel only has -105 odds attached to Duke -3.5. The five-cent difference may not seem like much, but savvy price shopping can certainly add up over the long run.

UCF-Duke picks made on 12/26/2022 at 12:30 p.m. ET.

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Written by:
Henry John

Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.