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Tulane vs. USC Odds, Picks, Predictions College Football: Caleb Williams Expected to Play in Cotton Bowl

Henry John

Last Updated: January 2, 2023 4:49 AM EST • 2 min 64 sec read.

Quarterback Caleb Williams of the USC Trojans poses during a press conference after winning the 2022 Heisman Trophy at the New York Marriott Marquis Hotel on December 10, 2022 in New York City.
Quarterback Caleb Williams of the USC Trojans poses during a press conference after winning the 2022 Heisman Trophy at the New York Marriott Marquis Hotel on December 10, 2022 in New York City. Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images via AFP.

Monday’s jam-packed college football slate includes a matchup between the Tulane Green Wave and the USC Trojans in the Cotton Bowl. Read on for our top Tulane-USC pick based on the top odds.

Tulane (11-2 against the spread, 7-6 Over/Under) had a remarkable turnaround season after winning just two games a year ago. The Green Wave were able to avenge one of their two losses in the AAC Championship Game when they knocked off UCF. That victory also earned Tulane a New Year’s Six Bowl invite as the highest-ranked Group of 5 team.

For USC (8-5 ATS, 10-3 O/U), it’s hard to view the Cotton Bowl as much more than a consolation prize. The Trojans were a Pac-12 Championship Game win away from qualifying for the College Football Playoff. Instead, USC lost to Utah for the second time this season and wound up eighth in the final CFP Rankings.

Here is our pick for the Cotton Bowl matchup between Tulane and USC (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Check out our college football best bets and our best Cotton Bowl odds.

Tulane vs. USC Game Info

Date: Monday, Jan. 2, 1 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Weather: Indoors

Tulane vs. USC Odds

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Tulane vs. USC Odds Analysis

This game opened with USC favored by just a single point. That line has somewhat shifted, as the Trojans are now 2.5-point favorites at most major sportsbooks. At DraftKings, USC has attracted the vast majority of both the Moneyline (79%) and ATS (83%) tickets as the favorite.

As for the total, the market consensus of 66 sits around 3 points higher than where most books opened the line. More than 60% of bets and 85% of the handle at DraftKings are on the Over.

Tulane vs. USC Pick

Over 63.5 ⭐⭐⭐

One of the toughest components of handicapping this year’s Cotton Bowl Classic has been the uncertain status of USC quarterback Caleb Williams. The 2022 Heisman Trophy Winner suffered a severe hamstring injury in the Pac-12 title game. Initially, many assumed he would miss the bowl game, but Williams has since indicated that he is on track to start against Tulane.

So long as the Trojans have their star in tow, there is little to suggest that they won’t score their fair share of points. Head coach Lincoln Riley’s offense finished the year fourth in the country in scoring offense with 41.4 points per game, and second in adjusted efficiency. Even without top receiver Jordan Addison, USC should be able to put up points against a Group of 5 opponent.

Little resistance to offense expected

While USC’s offense is extremely potent, the same cannot be said of the defense. The Trojans ranked 95th out of 131 FBS teams in adjusted defensive efficiency. Pretty much the only thing that has saved the unit is its propensity to generate takeaways. A turnover margin of plus-22 on the season leads the nation and is also six better than any other team.

Tulane’s defense was able to dictate terms against lesser American Athletic Conference opponents earlier in the year. However, in late-season matchups against teams with high-powered offenses like Memphis, SMU, and UCF, the Green Wave largely found themselves willingly engaging in and winning several high-scoring affairs. 

With QB Michael Pratt and star running back Tyjae Spears leading the way, the Green Wave offense packs quite a punch of its own. Needless to say, defensive stops could prove hard to come by in this matchup.

Tulane vs. USC Best Odds

DraftKings (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
63.563.56464.564
(-110)(-110)(-110)(-110)(-110)

With the total gradually rising across the market, the goal for bettors should be to find sportsbooks that are delayed in raising their number to match the consensus. With DraftKings’ line of 63.5 sitting as much as one full point below what other shops are listing, the decision on where to play the Over is clear.

As further updates on Williams’ status become more mainstream, it’s probably safe to assume that this line will continue to tick up prior to kickoff. As such, bettors should look to jump in on the Over as soon as possible in an effort to try and get ahead of any future line movement.

Tulane vs. USC picks made on 1/1/2023 at 1 p.m. EST.

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Written By:
Henry John
Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.