Skip to main content

Texas Tech vs. TCU Picks, Predictions College Football Week 10: Horned Frogs Try to Stay Perfect

Henry John

Last Updated: November 5, 2022 4:26 AM EDT • 3 min 38 sec read.

Kendre Miller #33 of the TCU Horned Frogs reacts following his game winning touchdown run against the Oklahoma State Cowboys during the second overtime at Amon G. Carter Stadium on October 15, 2022 in Fort Worth, Texas.
Kendre Miller of the TCU Horned Frogs reacts following his game-winning touchdown run against the Oklahoma State Cowboys during the second overtime at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas. Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images via AFP

The TCU Horned Frogs enter Week 10's matchup with the Texas Tech Red Raiders at No. 7 in the college football playoff rankings. Check out our top picks for the latest installment of the Texas Tech-TCU rivalry series.

Inconsistency has been the theme of the season so far for Texas Tech (4-4 ATS, 6-2 O/U). In recent weeks, that trend has continued. The Red Raiders routed West Virginia two weeks ago only to get horrible quarterback play last Saturday in an ugly home loss to Baylor.

Although TCU (6-1-1 ATS, 6-2 O/U) has yet to lose this season, there certainly have been some close calls. A 10-point road win over West Virginia last week was not indicative of how close the game was throughout. 

Here are our college football betting picks for the Week 10 matchup between Texas Tech and TCU (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Check out our college football best bets and all of our top picks for Week 10.

Texas Tech vs. TCU Game Info

Date: Saturday, Nov. 5, noon ET
TV: FOX
Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
Weather: 61 degrees, 14.3% chance of precipitation, 3-5 mph NW wind

Texas Tech vs. TCU Odds

Texas Tech vs. TCU Odds Analysis

There has been some reverse line movement on this spread. Despite 66% of the betting tickets accounting for 67% of the handle being wagered on the Horned Frogs to cover the spread, the consensus line has dropped from the opener of TCU -10 to -8 as of Saturday morning.

The Over/Under is down a point from the consensus opening line of 70.5. The Over has drawn 85% of the bets and 84% of the handle.

Texas Tech vs. TCU Picks

  • Spread: TCU -9.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ★★
  • Total: Under 69.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ★★★★
  • Prop: Texas Tech team total Under 29.5 (-105 via DraftKings) ★★★

Texas Tech vs. TCU ATS Pick

TCU -9.5 (-110) ★★

Anyone who backed TCU as a seven-point favorite at West Virginia last week was extremely fortunate to cash their ticket. Once again, the Horned Frogs are shaping up as the square side this week. This time, however, laying the points with Sonny Dykes’ squad is the more attractive play.

For starters, the prospects of TCU winning handily this week get a major boost from the fact that this game will be played in Fort Worth. While Texas Tech has already given both Kansas State and Oklahoma State tough games on the road, the outlook for the Red Raiders’ offense is much dicier than it was going into those two games.

Last week against Baylor, three different quarterbacks saw playing time for Texas Tech. All three threw at least one interception and combined to throw five picks in total. For as solid as Behren Morton played against both Oklahoma State and West Virginia, he only completed 11 of 34 pass attempts and threw three picks last week. 

Given the Red Raiders’ revolving door at quarterback, it’s difficult to feel confident in their ability to keep pace with TCU on the scoreboard. Bettors should anticipate a solid effort from the Tech defense. However, the chances of holding up for a full 60 minutes against Max Duggan and the buzzsaw that is the Horned Frogs’ offense are slim to none.

In addition, TCU may gain some extra motivation after being slighted in the inaugural College Football Playoff Rankings. Not only are the Frogs the lowest-ranked unbeaten team, but they landed behind one-loss Alabama.

Texas Tech vs. TCU O/U Pick

Under 69.5 (-110) ★★★★

Considering the public perception of both TCU and Texas Tech, playing the Under on the game total is certainly the contrarian play. It also will likely prove to be the winning play as even the adjusted line of 69.5 would still require a whole lot of scoring from both teams.

Perhaps the biggest component of this matchup worth highlighting here is the underrated Texas Tech defense. Coming into Week 10, the Red Raiders actually rank 22nd among all FBS teams in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

This adjusted efficiency ranking undoubtedly comes as a surprise to many, given that TTU has allowed at least 34 points in four of its five Big 12 games to date. In addition to turnovers by the offense, a big reason why the Red Raiders are involved in high-scoring games is their pace of play. Tech leads all FBS teams with 94.7 offensive plays run per game this season.

With so many weapons in the TCU offense, one has to believe that the Horned Frogs will get their points on Saturday. However, Texas Tech’s defense is certainly capable of putting up some resistance. As such, it’s easy to argue that the betting total is inflated.

In addition, it’s conceivable that the Red Raiders will slow things down offensively in an effort to keep the ball away from Duggan and the TCU offense.

Texas Tech vs. TCU Prop Pick

Texas Tech team total: Under 29.5 (-105) ★★★

Statistically speaking, TCU’s defense actually ranks much worse in several prominent metrics than Texas Tech’s. However, the quarterback position is a real concern for the Red Raiders coming into Saturday’s contest.

Whether it is Morton, Donovan Smith or some combination of the two, a performance similar to last week won’t fly if Tech wants to have any shot of scoring an upset. 

In addition, Texas Tech has been held below this prop total of 29.5 points in two of three road games so far this season. This line is simply too high of a bar for an offense with rampant turnover and QB issues to be expected to meet.

Where to Bet on Texas Tech vs. TCU Picks

  Check out our top-rated sportsbooks:  

Texas Tech-TCU picks made 11/02/2022 at 1 p.m. ET.

Written By:
Henry John
Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.