Oregon vs. USC Prediction: College Football Week 4 Opening Odds & Early Pick

After No. 20 Oregon’s rocky start to the season defensively, my Oregon vs. USC early prediction views this Ducks defense as susceptible to the high-octane potential of No. 12 USC behind QB Jayden Maiava.

After lookahead lines opened at Oregon -5.5, the Ducks are now favored by 3 points. The action kicks off from the L.A. Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC).

🏈 Early Oregon vs. USC prediction: Week 4

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USC +3 (-108 via DraftKings)

Bet size: 1.0 unit

It’s still early in the week but we’ve already seen notable line movement on this marquee Big Ten matchup between ranked opponents. Early in the year, we’ve seen the Ducks narrowly survive Group of Six opponent Boise State and drop a game to an upstart Oklahoma State side by permitting 39 points.

Oregon’s flaws defensively -- allowing 33.0 PPG to a pair of presently-unranked opponents across its two FBS games -- should show up against the most explosive offensive the Ducks will have seen to this point.

Though the Trojan defense hasn’t looked great against lesser competition -- which could mean an Over angle despite the lofty 62.5-point total -- I trust Jayden Maiava at home to eke this one out as he continues to bring his less-experienced receiving weapons along with him on the ride.

If this is the week that Dan Lanning gets it's defense fixed, so be it, but Oregon has so far had more trouble with opponents less talented than this one.

📊 Oregon vs. USC odds & line movement: Week 4

See the latest college football odds.

Oregon vs. USC opening odds

• Moneyline: Oregon -102 | USC -118
• Spread: Oregon +1.5 (-110) | USC -1.5 (-110)
• Over/Under: Over 63.5 (-110) | Under 63.5 (-110)

Oregon vs. USC line movement

This game was enough of a significant event to draw betting odds prior to the season, and when it did, Oregon was solidly favored, -5.5. Oregon’s rocky recent efforts had some books opening the week with USC as a small favorite. We’ve seen some rebound since then with FanDuel currently back up to Oregon -2.5 and threatening to get to -3, as DraftKings has done.

With the bounce back in the line that we’re seeing, there’s an argument to be made to sit on this one a bit longer to see whether we can regain some of the value that some shops had available on a lookahead line of USC +5.5 before Week 1. Still, I’m content to lock in USC +3 at DraftKings with -108 odds for a game that I believe USC could win outright.

📺 How to watch Oregon vs. USC: Week 4

• Date: Saturday, Sept. 26
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Location: L.A. Memorial Coliseum (Los Angeles)
• TV: NBC
• Streaming: Peacock