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New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green Odds, Picks, Predictions College Football: Quick Lane Bowl Starts Busy Week

Get our best New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green odds, picks and predictions for college football's Quick Lane Bowl!

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The college football bowl season carries on Monday with the Quick Lane Bowl between New Mexico State and Bowling Green. Read on for our top New Mexico State-Bowling Green college football picks based on the top odds.

The Aggies seek their first postseason win since the 1960 Sun Bowl. It's only the second time in 62 years that New Mexico State's program went bowling. A win over in-state rival New Mexico kicked off a stretch that saw the Aggies win five of their final six to become bowl-eligible in head coach Jerry Kill’s first season.

Bowling Green also surpassed expectations and now finds itself in the postseason for the first time since 2015. Despite losing two of their final three games in lopsided fashion, the Falcons are betting favorites in their bowl matchup.

Here is our best New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green Quick Lane Bowl pick (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Check out all of our top College Football Bowl Season odds and picks.

New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green Game Info

Date: Monday, Dec. 26, 2:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Weather: Indoors

New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green Odds

New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green Odds Analysis

New Mexico State opened as a small favorite, but now Bowling Green is favored by 3 points. The line movement comes despite 56% of the cash being on New Mexico State and 59% of the tickets on Bowling Green.

The total opened at 49.5 and now sits at 48.5 Nonetheless, the Over is drawing 87% of the cash and 71% of the tickets.

New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green Pick

Under 48.5 ⭐⭐⭐

The Quick Lane Bowl is one of the few bowl games where both teams should have the majority of their players available. Aside from New Mexico State’s punter who transferred, there are very few personnel concerns. Since both programs are in the middle of extended postseason droughts, motivation to win is strong.

When it comes to handicapping this contest, there's reason to believe the game total is too high. When New Mexico State matched up against relatively even competition this season, games were lower-scoring affairs. Contests against Nevada, UTEP, FIU, New Mexico and UMass all failed to reach 40-points, let alone get all the way to 48.

Bowling Green finished the year ranked 111th in overall adjusted efficiency, on par with several of NMSU’s previous opponents listed above. What’s more, Bowling Green’s offense was largely shut down during the regular season's second half. The Falcons were held to 17 points or less in five of their final seven games.

From a statistical standpoint, the Aggies’ defense certainly benefitted from playing lesser competition in 2022. Expecting Bowling Green to dictate terms ignores that they failed to do so against poor defensive MAC opponents.

New Mexico State quarterback Diego Pavia got banged up in the season-finale and could be less than 100%, something that only reinforces the decision to play the Under.

New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green Best Odds

DraftKings (-110)

DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	PointsBet
U 48.5 (-110)	U 48.5 (-110)	U 48.5 (-110)	U 48.5 (-110)	U 48.5 (-110)

Compared to some of the other bowl games, the Quick Lane Bowl has much more betting continuity. At the time of writing, DraftKings is one of several major sportsbooks listing the Over/Under at 48.5. Bettors have a variety of outlets to choose from.

It's important to revisit betting odds across the major sportsbooks when placing your wager. With the market showing signs of further adjustment to the Under, bettors should confirm where the optimal line and pricing are in case updates occur before kickoff.

New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green picks made 12/23/2022 at 1:51 p.m. ET.