College Football ATS Picks Week 10: Predictions Against the Spread

My college football ATS picks went 5-2 overall last week, including cashing both wagers on double-digit underdogs, one of which won outright (Sacramento State 31-10 over Kent State). 

Given the success I had with those double-digit ‘dogs' last week, more have found their way into my college football predictions for Week 10, including a West Virginia team that is catching too many points at No. 13 Texas Tech. My more in-depth analysis also looks at the matchup between No. 1 Miami and No. 4 Notre Dame, as the line seems disrespectful to the top-ranked team in the country

College football picks against the spread: Week 10

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 10 based on the latest college football odds.

Picks submitted: Nov. 2 at 9:45 a.m. ET. Odds subject to change. 

Best college football ATS picks

UConn +7.5 (-124 via FanDuel) vs. North Carolina

Bill Belichick will have to do one of his best coaching jobs to rally his team to play at noon against a 4-4 UConn squad. That follows a five-game stretch that included three against ranked opponents (two of which are currently in the top-4) and a game against their biggest rival (Duke).

North Carolina has lost back-to-back games to Syracuse and Miami in heartbreaking fashion by a combined four points. The Tar Heels have allowed more than four yards per carry in three straight games while forcing just one turnover in that span.

UConn should be able to keep up with a Tar Heels offense that entered last week ranked 80th in EPA/Pass and outside the top 100 in EPA/Rush. 

Play to: +7 (-110)

Tennessee -6.5 (-110 via FanDuel) vs. Kentucky

Tennessee had a bye week to regroup after squandering a late seven-point lead against a now-ranked South Carolina squad, and that time off should also have helped freshman quarterback George MacIntyre improve on his 26.7 QBR.

The Volunteers have been tough at home all season, and snapped Alabama’s seven-game road winning streak (which was the second-longest active streak in FBS) in their last home game.

There was also a lot to be encouraged by from the loss to South Carolina. Tennessee had three first-half rushing touchdowns on a Gamecocks defense that had allowed just four rushing scores total in six games. The Volunteers also recorded five more sacks after entering the game with an SEC and FBS-best 30.

Play to: -6.5 (-120), pass at -7 or higher

Miami +5.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Notre Dame

With weather not being as much of a concern as it could be on a November Indiana night (temperatures will be in the mid 40s), I’ll gladly take anything more than a field goal with the No. 1 team.

Notre Dame has the cornerback in Leonard Moore to limit wide receiver Malachi Toney’s playmaking. But the Fighting Irish lost DJ McKinney on the other side (a former Preseason First-Team All-Big 12 defender), which Miami will look to exploit with its top-6 offense in EPA/Play and overall success rate.

Notre Dame is tied for the second-most wins against No. 1 teams in the AP Poll era (nine), but a win this weekend would likely not come by a big enough margin to cover the spread.

Play to: +3.5 (-105)