Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) Prediction: Week 10 Odds, Picks & Best Bet (Nov. 3)
The winner of this early-week matchup between Buffalo and Miami (OH) gets a huge leg up in the race for a MAC championship, as both teams are 3-1 in the conference. My Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) prediction calls for a tight, low-scoring affair between these two conference contenders, despite the Bulls' offense seemingly kicking things into high gear of late.
One team’s three-game winning streak will end in this matchup, which kicks off at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday night (ESPN) at Yager Stadium in Oxford. Miami is a 6.5-point betting favorite.
Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) picks & predictions
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 10 based on the latest college football odds.
| Pick | Odds | Bet size |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo +6.5 | -110 via FanDuel | 1 unit to profit 0.91 units |
| Under 45.5 | -120 via FanDuel | 1 unit to profit 0.83 units |
Picks submitted: Nov. 1 at 2:20 p.m. ET. Odds subject to change.
Total wagered: 2 units | Profit if all picks win: 1.74 units
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Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
Under 45.5 (-120 via FanDuel)
Buffalo has seen its scoring output increase in four straight games, largely tied to Messiah Burch’s breakout running. Burch has rushed for over 100 yards in five straight games and is looking to become the first Bulls running back to eclipse 100 yards in six straight games since Jaret Patterson in 2019.
The Bulls will likely try to rely on Burch with a ground-and-pound approach and create short second- and third-down opportunities, especially since they aren’t typically set back by penalties. Buffalo became just the second FBS team this season to go through a game without committing a single penalty. And the Bulls will likely stay close enough to continue making the run a focal point of their offense, as five of the last six RedHawks games have come down to the final drive.
These are two of the only teams in league play that attempt more rushes than passes. Buffalo attempts 37.1 runs versus 28.1 passes per game, while Miami shortens the game with 32.4 rushing attempts to 30.1 pass attempts per game. With limited possessions likely, that adds value to the Under as my best bet.
📡 SBR Edge: Buffalo hunting turnovers
Buffalo has gone from forcing just two turnovers over the first five games to forcing seven over the last three, with two-plus turnovers forced in three straight.
Both defenses are stout in stopping the run
Miami quarterback Caleb Heavner finally looked more comfortable, throwing for 221 yards in his fourth career start last game. But prior to that, the RedHawks threw for just 95 and 65 yards, while relying on a defense that has limited four straight opponents to fewer than three yards per carry (272 rushing yards on a combined 109 carries over that span).
The RedHawks should continue to rely on a stout defense that ranks 14th nationally allowing fewer than 95 rushing yards per game. That’s nothing new for Miami (OH), who has finished in the top-50 nationally in rush defense every year since 2022.
On the other side, Penn State is the only team to have a player run for 100 yards against Buffalo, and the Bulls held Western Michigan and Toledo, two of the MAC’s top rushing offenses, to 115 or fewer rushing yards.
Play to: 44.5 (-110)
Score prediction: Miami (OH) 23, Buffalo 20
Live Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) odds
See the latest odds movement and more on our Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) matchup page.
Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) opening odds
- Moneyline: Buffalo +185 | Miami (OH) -230
- Spread: Buffalo +6.5 (-110) | Miami (OH) -6.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 (-110) | Under 44.5 (-110)
Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) weather
It will be unseasonably warm in Oxford for this night matchup, with temperatures in the high 60s and winds blowing 13 mph S.
Latest Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) injuries
Buffalo:
- Terrance Shelton Jr., RB - Questionable
Miami (OH):
- David McComb, QB - Out
How to watch Buffalo vs. Miami (OH): Week 10
- Date: Tuesday, Nov. 3
- Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Location: Yager Stadium (Oxford, Ohio)
- TV/Streaming: ESPN
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