Barcelona vs. Aston Villa Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tuesday's Champions League Match

Aston Villa has seen their form improve in recent weeks after a disastrous start, but my Barcelona vs. Aston Villa prediction is backing that to come to a screeching halt with a trip to Camp Nou on Tuesday. 

Oddsmakers expect the same, and with Barcelona a -400 moneyline betting favorite on the three-way line, we'll need to look elsewhere for the best value. My best Champions League bets will have you reach when play gets underway at 3 p.m. ET (Paramount+).

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Barcelona vs. Aston Villa predictions & best bets

See our experts' soccer picks.

Picks submitted: Nov. 2 at 1:45 p.m. ET

Total wagered: 1.5 units | Profit if all picks win: 1.98 units

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Barcelona vs. Aston Villa best bet

Check out all of our soccer betting analysis and expert predictions this season.

Barcelona Under 21.5 shots (-125 via bet365)

Any time you can hit 20 shots it's a big hill to climb, and while I don't think that Villa in the same league as Real Madrid or PSG, they only hit 18 in both of those games. And even that number is a lot of volume. They can (and will) spend plenty of time on the attack and in possession without needing to reach the 22 shots required for this one to fail. 

Villa will make Barcelona work through a crowded middle as they look for prime chances, so the hosts will have to recycle possession and avoid piling up needless shooting opportunities. Barcelona can still score three or four within this line, and when they take a multi-goal lead, they won't have to keep their foot on the ground while managing a winnable game with some serious injuries.

Unai Emery is a clever manager, and he'll have his defense prepared for this one (as much as anyone can be, that is)

Play to: -138

🆚 Who will win Barcelona vs. Aston Villa?

Barcelona will control possession and create more, and better, chances. Villa have enough skill to create problems if the hosts put too many men forward, and maybe they come up with a goal. 

They just don't come up with a three or four they'll need for a draw or win.

Score prediction: Barcelona 3, Aston Villa 1

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More Barcelona vs. Aston Villa expert picks

Under 4.5 (-150 via bet365)

Don't be fooled by Villa's 12 goals (3.01 xG/game) in the Champions League so far, those games have come away at Club Brugge (two goals) and at home to Fenerbahce and Viking. These teams are not in the same universe are Barca.

Villa have scored only 10 goals in their nine Prem games (1.21 xG/game), and even that is probably generous for what's coming on Tuesday. 

Barcelona will keep control of the action, leaving Villa to chase. That will take the urgency out of the game and keep every attack from turning into a dangerous scoring chance. An entertaining start should settle into a game where Villa does enough to keep it respectable, but not enough to reach five.

Play to: Any steeper than -150 and this becomes a pass

Raphinha 3+ shots on target (+225 via bet365)

Accuracy is the name of the game for the Barcelona striker, who has put 19 of his 35 shots on target to start the season. While his SOT per 90 is lower than this line, with 2.37 finding the net (on 4.36 total shots), this is more a play on the price than a real expectation that the Brazilian reach three. 

His central role gives him a different route than a winger would have, where it would often be a case of trying your luck from distance. He'll spend his day attacking the space between defenders and looking for cutbacks closer to goal, and those are the types of shooters I like to target with a price like this. Barcelona can finish below their 21 shot line with their main finisher getting plenty of chances, and in the event they exceed their 21.5 shot line and my best bet falls sideways, this one becomes even more likely. 

Make sure to play at a site where the "sub on, play on" type feature is in play - that way if he comes off early in a blowout you can get a finish on your wager with his sub. 

Play to: +225 (this is a price-point play, I'm not chasing lower than this line)

Nicolas Jackson 2+ shots on target (+275 via bet365)

Much like Raphinha, this is a play on the price. While Jackson is only averaging a little more than one shot on target per 90 domestically, he's been in better form recently. He's found the back of the net in three of the last five games across all comps, and has cleared this line in four of those games. 

Villa underwent a lot of change in the summer, and it has taken time for the squad to gel. They're looking more like it now. Despite that, Barcelona is a tough battle. The upshot is that Villa will likely be chasing, and because they won't have long spells of possession, getting shots away through Jackson is the most reasonable path to success. 

Play to: +275 (this is a price-point play, I'm not chasing lower than this line)

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Barcelona vs. Aston Villa key stats

All stats below are for the Champions League season unless otherwise noted.

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Barcelona vs. Aston Villa odds

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Barcelona vs. Aston Villa projected lineups

Here are the projected lineups for Barcelona vs. Aston Villa; subject to change:

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How to watch Barcelona vs. Aston Villa

• Date: Tuesday, Nov. 3
• Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
• Location: Camp Nou (Barcelona)
• TV/Streaming: Paramount+