Survivor Pool Picks Week 9: NFL Survivor Strategies & Safest Pick This Week
Arizona added to its head-scratching season with its third big upset, becoming the only one of the top four underdogs to win outright last week. Hopefully, you followed my NFL survivor pool picks, which had the Bengals as the safest play of the week.
The Colts and Chargers look like two AFC teams that are playing out the string, with just two wins between them, but I'm not targeting either of them in survivor pools in Week 9, with both playing at home. Instead, my NFL Week 9 predictions look to Kansas City in a prime bounce-back spot after losing to Denver, while offering a 2-5 NFC team coming off a bye as my top strategy play of the week.
Best NFL survivor pool picks: Week 9
See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this season.
| Team | Opponent | Moneyline | Win probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | vs. Cardinals | -700 | 87.5% |
| Chiefs | vs. Jets | -520 | 83.9% |
| 49ers | vs. Raiders | -500 | 83.3% |
| Jaguars | at Ravens | -410 | 80.4% |
| Lions | at Dolphins | -375 | 79% |
| Cowboys | at Colts | -250 | 71.4% |
| Bears | vs. Buccaneers | -238 | 70.4% |
| Rams | at Commanders | -230 | 69.7% |
| Texans | at Chargers | -218 | 68.6% |
| Patriots | vs. Packers | -148 | 59.7% |
Picks submitted: Nov. 2 at 8:29 a.m. ET. Odds subject to change.
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Safest NFL survivor pick: Chiefs (83.9%) over Jets
Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in Week 9.
Last week Patrick Mahomes blew a double-digit fourth-quarter lead for just the third time in his career. But even after squandering an 11-point lead, his Chiefs still had a 76% win probability (per Next Gen Stats) when trailing by four by having a first-and-goal situation from the Broncos four-yard line late.
No matter how heartbreaking of a loss the Chiefs are coming off of, they’re not in danger of losing at home to a Jets team that just allowed 38 points to the Raiders (their season-high). New York also scored touchdowns on just three of its six red zone possessions, and won’t have an answer for Mahomes if Kirk Cousins was able to throw for 247 yards while completing passes to just four different receivers.
⏰️ Set your alarm: Jets vs. Chiefs
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- Venue: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
- How to watch: CBS
Best NFL survivor pick: 49ers (83.3%) over Raiders
The 49ers face a Raiders squad that has scored 221 points this season, their most through eight games since 2002 (when they went to the Super Bowl). But San Francisco is rested off a bye, and has not lost off a bye week since 2022 (a five-game winning streak).
This is a great time to use San Francisco if you haven’t already in survivor pools, as three of its next four games are against teams with a winning record (Vikings, Seahawks, and Giants), while the first opponent after that stretch is the preseason Super Bowl favorites (Rams). At the rate that San Francisco seems to lose key players to injuries each year, I wouldn’t want to wait to see what its roster looks like after that brutal four-game stretch.
⏰️ Set your alarm: Raiders vs. 49ers
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Venue: Levi's Stadium (Santa Clara, Calif.)
- How to watch: Fox
NFL survivor strategy pick: Saints (58.7%) over Browns
The fact that a 2-5 Saints team is favored over a 5-3 Browns team suggests oddsmakers believe this is a great spot to use a New Orleans squad that you likely haven’t used yet in survivor pools.
Cleveland used a stout run defense to win four of its first six games while allowing just one rushing touchdown in that span. But the Browns have now allowed six rushing touchdowns over the last two weeks, and just allowed Pittsburgh to run for a season-high 200 yards (Jaylen Warren tied his career-high with 143 on the ground).
New Orleans is rested off a bye week and will likely use that added rest to deploy a bruising running game to attack Cleveland’s weakness.
The Browns have won just four of their last five games since 2024 when at a rest disadvantage, while New Orleans has won just 37.9% of its games since 2023, but 57.1% of them as home favorites (eight of 14).
⏰️ Set your alarm: Browns vs. Saints
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- Venue: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans, La.)
- How to watch: CBS
NFL survivor pick to avoid: Lions (79%) over Dolphins
It will be fair to wonder what Detroit will have left in the tank after two hard-fought home victories by a combined seven points over two divisional rivals (Packers and Vikings). This is an impossible scheduling spot for the Lions, who travel to Germany the week after to face New England.
The Patriots struggled with the Miami heat and humidity last week while being held to just three points in the first half. And it will be interesting to see if Jared Goff’s rhythm and timing is off after being blitzed on 26 of his 29 dropbacks, the highest blitz rate any quarterback has faced since at least 2008.
Detroit has a much more appealing survivor spot in a Week 14 home game against Tennessee if you’re thinking about when to use the Lions.
⏰️ Set your alarm: Lions vs. Dolphins
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- Venue: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Fla.)
- How to watch: Fox
Circa Survivor contest update entering Week 9
There were 660 entries remaining in the Circa Sports survivor contest entering Week 8, and 50 were eliminated this week. The Cowboys accounted for 49 of the 50 eliminated entries (one other contestant lost on the Jets), which means 610 entries move into Week 9. Each of those entries now has an implied value of $41,011.97.
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