The Golden Gophers and Hawkeyes collide for a key Big Ten matchup at Kinnick Stadium in Week 11. Find out who we like in what should be a low-scoring game with our Minnesota and Iowa picks.
Does any conference have more silly trophy games than the Big Ten? I don’t think so. The winner of Saturday’s matchup between the Minnesota Golden Gophers and No. 19 Iowa Hawkeyes gets possession of the Floyd of Rosedale, which is about a 100-pound trophy of a bronze pig. Yep, only in the Big Ten.
Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, and Purdue are all 4-2 in Big Ten play from the West. Iowa already has lost to the Badgers and Boilermakers, so it would obviously lose a tiebreaker to each. The Gophers beat Purdue 20-13 on October 2 and close the regular season at home versus the Badgers. In this writer’s opinion, Wisconsin will win the West.
Minnesota has lost its past nine in Iowa City, but the road team is 4-1-1 against the spread in the past six games.
Here are my picks and predictions for the college football Week 11 matchup between Minnesota and Iowa (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a one-to-five star scale).
Minnesota vs. Iowa Game Info
Date/Time: Saturday, November 13, 3:30 p.m. ETTV: Big Ten NetworkLocation: Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IAWeather: 40 degrees, cloudy, WNW winds of 10-20 mph
Minnesota vs. Iowa Odds Analysis
This spread opened at Iowa -6.5 and got as low as -4.5 points but is back to -5.5 currently with Iowa taking about a 70 percent lean, according to the SBR betting consensus. This will mark the sixth time in the past seven meetings that the spread closed below 7.
The total of 37 is obscenely low but that’s Big Ten football for you. From my research, this would be the rivalry’s lowest total by far this century.
Minnesota vs. Iowa Betting Picks
Iowa -5.5 (-110) ????Under 37 (-110) ???
SEE ALSO: College Football Week 11 Parlay Picks
Minnesota vs. Iowa Betting Predictions
Iowa -5.5 (-110)
The big question here is whether quarterback Spencer Petras starts under center for Iowa and as of now, the answer is apparently no. In last week’s ugly 17-12 win over Northwestern, coach Kirk Ferentz started a banged-up Petras but pulled him after completing 2-of-4 passes for four yards. Backup Alex Padilla, in the first significant action of his two-year career, was 18-for-28 for 172 yards and didn’t turn the ball over, which is all Ferentz wants.
Petras didn’t have any “zip” on the ball, Ferentz said, and was removed because of a shoulder injury he suffered in Iowa’s loss to Wisconsin on Oct. 30. Petras, who has started the last 17 games, is not currently on the depth chart and Padilla is looking like the starter for Week 11.
Minnesota may have been looking past Illinois last week in a 14-6 upset loss. Had the Gophers won that, they would have been in sole possession of first place in the Big Ten West. Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan was 15-for-27 for 180 yards and two picks, but PJ Fleck isn’t about to pull him.
Iowa is 7-1 ATS in its past eight after allowing 20 points or fewer in the previous game. The Hawkeyes are 4-1-1 ATS in the past six in this series and have won all six straight up, including a 35-7 blowout victory last year. In fact, the Hawkeyes have not trailed in a game against the Gophers since the fourth quarter of 2016. We are backing them again to keep that success going in our Minnesota and Iowa picks for Week 11.
Under 37 (-110)
This is at least the fifth game in the Big Ten this season with a total of 38 or lower — that conference is truly stuck in the stone age. Just for comparison, there are a few totals around the country this week that more than double this 37-point Over/Under total.
I wouldn’t normally consider going Under a total this low, but everything points to it with the Hawkeyes on a backup quarterback and owning one of the nation’s top defenses. Iowa ranks fifth in the country in scoring defense (15.7 points per game), seventh nationally in rush defense (98.7 yards per game), and 10th in total defense (304.6 ypg). It also leads the country in interceptions (19) and ranks third in takeaways (24). Star defensive back Riley Moss, who has four picks on the season, has missed the past few games but is expected back.
Minnesota has already lost its top three running backs to season-ending injuries, making freshman Ky Thomas the No. 1 guy now. Gophers top wideout Chris Autman-Bell has been in and out of the lineup all year and left the Illinois loss but is expected to play, although he may not be 100 percent.
The Golden Gophers defense is no slouch either, ranking 14th nationally against the rush (103.1 ypg). They have held five opponents to 104 rushing yards or fewer. Overall, Minnesota ranks eighth in the country with 298.9 yards allowed per game and 15th in points (18.3 ppg).
The Under is 12-3-1 in Iowa’s past 16 at home and 5-1 in Minnesota’s past six on the road. Expect a lot of punting Saturday.
SEE ALSO: Northwestern vs. Wisconsin Week 11 Picks
Picks made on 11/09/2021 at 9:11 p.m. ET.