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Michael Penix Jr. Player Props, Odds: Predictions for Washington vs. Michigan in National Championship

Shane Jackson

Last Updated: January 8, 2024 6:31 PM EST • 3 min 30 sec read.

Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. is among the biggest stars in Monday's national championship game, and we assess whether the talented passer will succeed against Michigan's dominant defense in Monday's college football championship game as we give our Michael Penix Jr. player props based on the best college football odds at the best college football betting sites.

While he came up just short of the Heisman Trophy, Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. outshined virtually every other player in college football entering the national championship against Michigan. The left-handed signal-caller has thrown for 4,648 yards and 35 touchdowns to this point, leading the undefeated Huskies to Monday's CFP final against the unbeaten Michigan Wolverines.

Penix must wear his cape and embrace the role of Washington's superhero in the final game, as the program aims to achieve its first national title since 1991. Can Penix rise to the challenge presented by the best defense in college football?

To go along with our Washington vs. Michigan prediction, our Washington vs. Michigan player props, and our J.J. McCarthy player props, here are our best Michael Penix Jr. player props for Monday's national championship game (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Michael Penix Jr. player props: National Championship

Michael Penix Jr. Under 297.5 passing yards (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This line is proof that there is no stopping the Heisman runner-up. You can only hope to contain Penix.

Penix's passing yardage prop is nearly 300 yards, despite Monday's national championship being his toughest test yet. The Wolverines are giving up just 150 passing yards per game, while also ranking second in the country in passing defense success rate.

I do think Penix will find success through the air between the 20s, but Michigan's game plan of playing keep away with a ball-control offense should hold the Washington QB below the 300-yard mark.

We project Penix closer to 270 passing yards, and most of our best sportsbooks seem to agree with Penix's total trading below 290 passing yards almost everywhere else. Take this bargain at BetMGM while you can.

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Michael Penix Jr. longest completion Under 44.5 yards (-122 via ESPN BET) ⭐⭐⭐

The scariest part of Washington's offense is its ability to hit a big play and swing the momentum of this game. Penix, in particular, has a knack for hitting a deep shot to one of his talented NFL-level receivers.

Penix has recorded a completion of at least 45 yards in both postseason games thus far, including a 77-yard bomb in last week's CFP semifinal victory over Texas. He cleared this mark in six of his 14 games thus far, including a season-best 92-yard completion against Stanford.

But there is reason to believe that Penix will have to settle for the easier throws a bit more against Michigan. The Wolverines are very good at creating pressure, and one way to combat that is by using more quick passes. Washington isn't much of an RPO team, but we do expect a heavy dose of short throws to the outside and intermediate connections on roll-outs in this matchup.

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Michael Penix Jr. Under 0.5 interceptions (+180 via bet365) ⭐⭐

As mentioned in our J.J. McCarthy player props, interceptions tend to be fluky and difficult to project. Nobody is better proof of that than Penix, who has thrown nine interceptions on the year and finished eight different games with at least one interception.

With those surface stats ahead of this matchup, it's easy to see why Penix has a price of -200 via our best sports betting apps to throw an interception in the national title game. But those numbers don't tell the whole story, as PFF has recorded just nine turnover-worthy plays by Penix on the year. That suggests there has been some level of bad variance on Penix's interceptions.

Penix didn't throw a pick against Texas last time out, and we think the odds are too juicy to pass up for him to do it again. bet365 is offering +180 odds, which is especially appealing next to Caesars' +165 odds for the same wager.

Michael Penix Jr. player props made Sunday at 1:35 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Shane Jackson
Shane Jackson has been writing for Sportsbook Review since 2022, though his passion for sports, writing, and betting runs much longer than that. He graduated from the University of Kansas with a journalism degree in 2017 and has been covering sports ever since, working for MLB.com, Manhattan Mercury, Lawrence Journal-World, WynnBET, Bet Chicago Sports, BetNOLA, and BetMGM. Jackson cares about creating quality sports betting content above all else. He uses a mixture of models, information, film, analysis, and a top-down approach to locate every best bet shared for SBR. He never gives out a pick that he wouldn’t be willing to spend his own money on. Jackson is focused on finding +EV bets on a daily basis for a variety of sports such as NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, and MLB. He usually bets on props but is willing to wager on a spread or total when there is an edge. Don’t ask him how many bets he has placed on a typical college football Saturday. Jackson doesn’t care if you follow him on social media, but his Twitter account has info on how you can follow his bets through multiple third-party platforms. He just wants you to read all the great work from the SBR team.