Louisville vs. USC Prediction, Pick & Odds: Holiday Bowl 2023
Wednesday's Holiday Bowl has the potential to be a shoot-out between the USC Trojans and Louisville Cardinals from Petco Park in sunny San Diego, and we offer our top Louisville vs. USC prediction based on the best college football odds.
We won't see a full complement of stars on the field for the 2023 Holiday Bowl in San Diego, but we can still expect fireworks at Petco Park on Wednesday night between the Louisville Cardinals (10-3) and USC Trojans (7-5).
The Trojans entered the 2023 campaign with playoff aspirations behind reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams, holding the No. 6 spot in the preseason polls. Yet USC lost five games for the fourth time in six seasons and will try to win its first bowl game since the 2016 Rose Bowl.
On the other side, Louisville won 10 games for the first time since 2014 as a member of the ACC. However, its 16-6 loss to Florida State in the ACC Championship knocked this team out of a New Year's Six bowl game and into Wednesday's Holiday Bowl.
As part of our look at all college bowl game odds, here is our best Louisville vs. USC prediction and our college football picks for the 2023 Holiday Bowl (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Louisville vs. USC prediction: Holiday Bowl
Over 57.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
We figure to be on the contrarian side of this total, given that Caleb Williams has opted out of the game, while Louisville couldn’t even muster a touchdown in the ACC championship. However, we still believe in a Lincoln Riley-led offense, no matter who has opted out, while having just as much doubt about the Trojans defense.
USC will have Miller Moss under center for his first career start. Though the sophomore has thrown fewer than 60 career passes, we expect Riley to still air it out early and often in front of the partisan San Diego crowd to get a glimpse of what he has for the future.
The Cardinals may have finished in the top 20 in Defensive Success Rate and preventing explosive plays, but the ACC was not a juggernaut for quarterbacks. Three of Louisville’s opponents finished inside the top 40 in Offensive SP+ (Notre Dame, Miami, and Florida State). Still, the Seminoles were playing with their third-string quarterback, and the first two scored a combined 51 points and averaged 392 total yards against the Cardinals.
USC threw in the towel at the end of the regular season, losing three straight games and five of its final six. It allowed 34-plus points in every game in that span and averaged 42.8 points per game allowed overall. Louisville will be without leading rusher Jawhar Jordan (1,128 rushing yards) and leading receiver Jamari Thrash (858 receiving yards).
However, it should still move the ball with ease against a Trojans defense that ranks outside the top 110 in total defense and scoring defense. The Over is 9-1 in USC’s previous 10 games against AP-ranked teams, and we expect another high-scoring game in this one.
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Louisville vs. USC best odds
FanDuel (-110)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 58.5 | Over 57.5 | Over 57.5 | Over 57.5 | Over 57.5 |
| -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Over backers have their choice of three of the top sportsbooks (FanDuel, Caesars, or bet365) to find the best value with the lowest number (57.5) at standard -110 juice. We opted to shop at FanDuel, which typically offers better same-game parlay odds.
Every single one of USC’s games this season have had 58-plus points scored, but some bettors may be skeptical, as the Trojans’ two lowest-scoring games of the season came in their final two games (63 total points vs. Oregon, 58 total points vs. UCLA).
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Louisville vs. USC odds
Louisville vs. USC odds analysis
The line movement on the total has been similar at three of our top best sports betting apps, as FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars all saw an initial increase from 57.5 to either 58 or 58.5 before returning to the original number.
The two-way action is indicative of this line movement, as 61% of the bets are on the Over. Louisville has an O/U record of 6-6, while the Over has cashed in nine of USC’s 12 games.
Our best sportsbooks are in unison with a point spread of Louisville -7.5, though FanDuel and DraftKings are juiced slightly to USC at -112 odds. The line has gone through the key number of 7 at all sportsbooks, as -6.5 was the most common opening number. FanDuel was the only shop to see its line reach as high as -8.5, while others plateaued at -8.
This is a case of reverse line movement, as 63% of the wagers are on the underdog Trojans.
Holiday Bowl game info
- When: Wednesday, Dec. 27 at 8 p.m. ET
- Where: Petco Park, San Diego
- How to watch: FOX
- Weather: 66 degrees, 5% chance of precipitation, wind 8-mph NW
Louisville-USC prediction made Monday at 6:36 a.m. ET.
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