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Mets vs. Phillies Player Prop Predictions, Odds: Expert Picks for Sunday

Mike Spector

Last Updated: June 9, 2024 9:26 AM EDT • 3 min 10 sec read.

Phillies outfielder Nick Castellanos looks on after hitting a two-run home run as we make our Mets vs. Phillies player props
Phillies outfielder Nick Castellanos looks on after hitting a two-run home run against the Milwaukee Brewers in the fifth inning at Citizens Bank Park. Photo Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports.

The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets finish their two-game series across the pond in London Sunday morning, and we have you covered with our Mets vs. Phillies player props and expert picks based on the best MLB odds.

After defeating the New York Mets 7-2 in Saturday's series opener in London, the Philadelphia Phillies aim for a sweep on Sunday. The game at London Stadium is set to start at 10 a.m. ET. The Phillies are -142 favorites, indicating an implied win probability of 58.68%.

Philadelphia boasts a run differential 23 runs better than the next-best National League team, though they face a tougher schedule in the coming months, having played only six games against teams with a winning record.

The Mets, meanwhile, are looking to secure their third consecutive non-losing series after splitting a four-game set with the Arizona Diamondbacks and sweeping the Washington Nationals in three straight road games.

Here are our best Mets vs. Phillies player props and MLB picks for Sunday's matchup in London.

Mets vs. Phillies player props

Odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

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Mets vs. Phillies expert picks

Jose Quintana Over 3.5 earned runs (OFF) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Phillies get their second straight look at a Mets southpaw after facing Sean Manaea in the series opener. Philadelphia entered the weekend with an impressive 112 wRC+ against left-handed pitching over the previous 30 days, and the 9.3% walk rate in that span speaks to the lineup’s patience and ability to see the ball well.

The Phillies lineup has been relentless against left-handed pitchers, as eight players had an xwOBA of .320 or better entering Saturday. That should result in plenty of offense against Quintana, who has arguably been the Mets’ worst starting pitcher, with a 5.17 WHIP and 1.39 ERA.

Just three of Quintana’s 12 starts have been quality starts, and he has allowed three or more earned runs in five of six starts since the calendar turned to May.

Best odds: -110 via DraftKings

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Nick Castellanos to hit a home run (OFF) ⭐⭐

The wind was blowing out slightly at London Stadium Saturday, and if Sunday's forecast is the same, we would be wise to take advantage of a possible big payday with home run props against a pitcher who serves them up in bunches. 

Quintana has allowed 11 home runs through 62 2/3 innings, more than double any other Mets pitcher, and Nick Castellanos has the second-highest fly ball to home run rate (22.7%) of any Phillies hitter.

Castellanos also leads all Phillies hitters with a 45.1% hard-hit rate against southpaws, and after breaking a five-game homerless drought with a big fly on Wednesday, we are banking on him clearing the fences again.

Best odds: +400 via DraftKings

Taijuan Walker Under 4.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐

In Taijuan Walker’s lone start against his former Mets teammates this season, he recorded a season-low one strikeout, though much of that was due to being removed after just 59 pitches as he was removed after getting hit in the foot with a line drive. Walker has recorded at least four strikeouts in all of his other starts, but is trending in the wrong direction, with his ERA increasing in five consecutive starts from 4.82 to 5.73.

Walker is the only Phillies starting pitcher with a negative WAR rating, and his 18.0% strikeout rate is on pace to be a career low and has decreased for four consecutive seasons. The Mets rank 15th in strikeout rate since May 1 against right-handed pitchers and are also in the top half of the league in ISO, slugging, and batting average in that split over the same time.

We expect them to put plenty of balls in play in what should be another short outing for Walker, as he has recorded 15 or fewer outs in three of his last four starts.

Best odds: -160 via DraftKings

Mets vs. Phillies odds & game info

  • When: Sunday, June 9
  • First pitch: 10 a.m. ET
  • Where: London Stadium, London
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Favorite: Phillies (-142 via FanDuel)

Mets-Phillies player props made Saturday at 7:20 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”