Free College Football Picks: NCAAF Predictions & Best Bets

Arguably the best player in the country, Jeremiah Smith can take advantage of an inconsistent Michigan pass defense. Smith is averaging the highest yards per route run in the country of any player with at least 80 targets (3.43) and has scored at least twice in four other games.

Michigan wants to run the ball and will lean heavily on Jordan Marshall against the Buckeyes. The Wolverines are No. 8 in EPA per rush thanks to Marshall, who's rushed for 570 yards and seven touchdowns in his last four games.

Bryce Underwood has averaged just 123.5 passing yards per game against defenses ranked top 35 by SP+. Ohio State is ranked No. 1 and allows the fewest passing yards per game in college football (126.6). 

Michigan is susceptible through the air, ranking just No. 44 in EPA per pass on defense. So expect Jeremiah Smith to be utilized early and often. He has the highest reception rate of any player with at least 80 targets (82.1%), and he's averaged 7.5 receptions per game in games he's played at least 40 snaps.

Carnell Tate is one of the best big-play threats in the country. He's the only player in college football averaging over 3.5 yards per route run (3.52) and having pulled down double-digit contested catches (12). Tate has scored in six of eight games this season

Underwood has faced just one top-seven Big Ten pass defense, and he threw for 105 yards. Ohio State is allowing just 126.6 passing yards per game, the fewest in the nation.

Michigan is averaging 29.2 points per game, but the Wolverines have scored just 13 in each of their games against ranked opponents. Ohio State is allowing 7.6 points per game, and the Buckeyes scored only 14 in their lone game against a ranked team.

Michigan’s defense entered last week ranked 131st in EPA/rush allowed, while allowing available yards at the 100th-worst rate. 

Meanwhile, Bo Jackson is coming off earning Big Ten Freshman of the Week honors after his first multi-touchdown game and second straight game with 100 or more yards on the ground. He now has three 100-yard games in the last four and rushed for at least 80 yards in every game in that span. 

Ohio State is allowing 7.6 points per game. The Buckeyes have yet to allow more than 16 in a single contest, and they’ve held nine of 11 opponents to 10 or fewer. Meanwhile, Michigan is giving up just 17.9 points per contest.

This spread is simply too large, given the history of The Game, especially considering Michigan's recent struggles against Ohio State. Last year, Sherrone Moore led a much worse Wolverines team to a win in Columbus over a Buckeyes program that went on to win the national title. This year, Michigan has a shot at the CFP if it can pull off another upset. While I don't see an outright win happening, I do think Michigan is built to make this a messy, low-scoring game. The Wolverines are ranked No. 10 on defense by SP+, and Ohio State is dealing with multiple injuries on offense. This is by far the most hostile environment Julian Sayin has played in, and Michigan freshman Bryce Underwood is coming off one of his best games of the year. The health of the Wolverines' running back room will be key to a cover.

The weather could impact offensive play from both teams, but Louisiana Tech is averaging 26.4 points per game this season, while Missouri State has scored at least 28 and given up at least 21 in three of four games.

Oklahoma is poised to beat LSU for the first time since 1949. The Sooners' defense is the best in the SEC (No. 3 in the country by SP+), and LSU struggled to score 13 on Western Kentucky last week. With LSU's issues and the fans more interested in Lane Kiffin than this game, the Tigers should fail to cover for a sixth straight game.

Missouri leads the SEC in rushing, and Hardy has seven 100-yard rushing games this season. He's averaging 6.6 yards per carry and is about to face the SEC's second-worst rush defense.

Green has only thrown more than one touchdown in four games. However, Missouri has allowed 14 passing touchdowns, and Green has thrown multiple touchdowns against two SEC teams this season.

Sharpe has only caught three touchdowns this season, but he's accounted for 32.5% of completions over the last three weeks. Missouri has allowed 14 passing touchdowns this season, which ranks 10th in the SEC.

This is a great price to back Vanderbilt’s leading pass-catcher’s anytime touchdown odds. Stowers has a multi-touchdown game and a 12-reception game in the last three weeks. He also leads all tight ends with 705 receiving yards and the most yards in a single game this season (146). 

Washington is averaging 7.6 PPG against teams with defenses ranked top 40 by SP+. The Huskies are 0-3 ATS in those games, and Oregon is ranked No. 5 on defense by SP+. Plus, Dante Moore and Kenyon Sadiq should take advantage of a Washington team ranked No. 77 in EPA per pass.

Florida State is one of six FBS teams (and the only one hailing from a Power Four conference) playing this weekend that needs a win for bowl eligibility while facing a team that is eliminated from bowl contention. It does not get much more motivating for the Seminoles to beat their in-state rival Gators than that.

Makai Lemon has been unstoppable this season, ranking No. 3 in the Power Four in YAC (502), No. 4 in yards per route run (3.24), and No. 15 in contested catches (10). UCLA has allowed the eighth-most TD passes in the Power Four (21), and Lemon has already scored multiple TDs in five games this season.

UCLA's temporary bump following the firing of DeShaun Foster has ended. The Bruins have lost four straight games by an average of 32.2 PPG. Jayden Maiava and Makai Lemon should have no problem pulling away against a UCLA team ranked No. 97 in defensive SP+.

Auburn has a star in the making in Cam Coleman, and the Tigers will need to feed him to keep the Iron Bowl competitive. The former five-star recruit is averaging 5.3 receptions for 66.8 yards on 7.8 targets per game in SEC play. 

Cobb has just four touchdowns this season, but Alabama struggles to defend the run, allowing 121.8 rushing yards per game and 12 rushing touchdowns this year. Cobb has at least 12 carries in six consecutive games.

Daniels has thrown for 108 yards or fewer in two of his three appearances. Alabama is allowing just 148.6 passing yards per game.

Hill has just one game with more than 42.5 yards this season, and he now has to face a defense allowing just 2.7 yards per rush.

This Iron Bowl total has plummeted from an opening number of 51.5, despite 57% of the early wagers being placed on the Over. I am backing the sharps and this reverse line movement before the total lowers any further.

The Under has cashed in three of the last five meetings between these teams and is 5-0 in the Crimson Tide’s last five games in the state of Alabama. 

Are we sure Alabama is going to win this game? Crimson Tide star QB Ty Simpson has been inaccurate as of late, and Alabama still can't run the ball. And while Auburn's season has been a lost cause, the Tigers still have one of the best defenses in the country (No. 16 by SP+). Scoring should be difficult for Auburn, too, with how quietly terrific Alabama's defense has been (No. 6 by SP+). The Crimson Tide should expose the Tigers' offensive line woes and put plenty of pressure on true freshman QB Deuce Knight. Alabama should cover as a 4.5-point betting favorite, but I'm more comfortable targeting the Under as my best bet for the Iron Bowl. These teams are a combined 14-8 betting the Under this season.

Faison only has three touchdowns this season, but he leads Notre Dame in receptions, and he's second on the team in receiving yards. Satnfor has allowed 19 passing touchdowns this season.

Williams has averaged at least 10.0 yards per reception in eight consecutive games. Notre Dame is allowing 11.1 yards per reception this season, which is good news for Williams, who leads Stanford with 58 receptions and 735 yards.

Love has at least 136 yards in four of his last five games, and he's averaging 7.1 yards per carry this season. Stanford is allowing just 113.1 rushing yards per game, but Love ran for 147 against the ACC's second-ranked rush defense two weeks ago.