Kansas State vs. BYU Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 4
The Kansas State Wildcats and BYU Cougars play in Week 4’s “Big 12 After Dark” game in what is the conference opener for both teams.
It marks their first meeting in nearly 30 years, and Kansas State is looking for its first win in Provo, Utah (the Wildcats are 0-3 there all-time).
Our Kansas State vs. BYU prediction, part of our college football Week 4 predictions, expects Kansas State to get that elusive win, as it should overcome the altitude and dominate in the trenches.
The Wildcats enter Saturday's game (ESPN) as the favorites at our best sports betting apps.
Best Kansas State vs. BYU picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Kansas State -6.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. BYU ⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop pick: DJ Giddens Over 17.5 rushing attempts (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Kansas State vs. BYU against the spread prediction: Week 4
Kansas State to cover the spread: -6.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
Kansas State vs. BYU opening odds:
- Kansas State: -7 (-110 via BetMGM)
- BYU: +7 (-110 via BetMGM)
Kansas State trailed Tulane by seven points in the fourth quarter two weeks ago but ended the game with 14 unanswered points to win by seven.
While many will consider that an unimpressive win, the Wildcats were only 9.5-point favorites in that matchup. Also, Tulane received a couple of first-place votes in the American Athletic Conference (AAC) Preseason Media Poll.
Last week, the Wildcats showed their true potential in dominating Arizona 31-7 in a ranked vs. ranked matchup.
Kansas State made Arizona one-dimensional after holding it to 2.9 yards per rush, and while the Wildcats officially forced only one turnover, it got three other stops via turnovers on downs.
Meanwhile, BYU’s best win to this point is a road win over an SMU team facing a quarterback controversy, which led to them eventually benching the struggling Preston Stone mid-game.
Kansas State's third-down improvements
Through its first two games, Kansas State converted just six of 20 third-down opportunities, but the Wildcats can build off last week’s 7-for-13 performance on third down against Arizona.
That allowed Kansas State to stay relatively even with Arizona in terms of time of possession, and its high conversion rate was largely due to solid discipline, committing six fewer penalties for a reduction of 54 yards.
The Wildcats can make the Cougars one-dimensional
Kansas State’s secondary continues to be a little leaky, as its starting safeties entered last week with the lowest coverage grades in the Big 12 and had allowed receptions on two-thirds of passes thrown their way.
However, the 268 passing yards the Wildcats allowed to Noah Fifita did not hurt them, and their top-20 Havoc and Rush Success Rate Allowed metrics got a huge boost after holding Arizona to just 56 yards rushing.
Many teams struggle with the altitude in Provo, as evidenced by BYU’s 4-1 ATS record as home underdogs and 6-3 ATS record in nine games against ranked opponents since 2020.
However, the line moved from -7 to -6.5, making all the difference. BetMGM is the only top sports betting site offering that number at the standard -110 juice.
A winning $10 wager would pay out $19.09.
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Kansas State vs. BYU prop pick for Week 4
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DJ Giddens Over 17.5 rushing attempts (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Kansas State entered last week with a 57% rush rate but utilized the ground game heavily to pull away from Arizona, finishing with 41 rushing attempts to 23 passes.
Quarterback Avery Johnson finished the game tied with DJ Giddens for the team lead (17 carries).
Giddens has 18-plus carries in just one of three games this year, but the coaching staff leaned on him at the end of last season, as he reached that total in the final four games, averaging 24.5 carries per game in that span.
I expect BYU to get a heavy dose of Giddens, as the Wildcats will rely on their best skill-position player to pull out the road win.
This is a four-star play, as oddsmakers expect Giddens to surpass the 100-yard mark on the ground, given that his rushing yards O/U is 104.5.
If he achieved that mark on fewer than 18 carries, it would require a per-carry average north of six yards.
But I am banking on him surpassing his yards total through a heavy dose of carries.
A $10 winning wager at bet365’s -115 odds would return $8.70 in profits.
Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Kansas State vs. BYU odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Kansas State vs. BYU game info
- When: Saturday, Sept. 21
- Kickoff: 10:30 p.m. ET
- Where: LaVell Edwards Stadium (Provo, Utah)
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 66 degrees, 30% chance of precipitation, wind 7 mph NW
- Favorite: Kansas State (-250 via BetMGM)
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