Florida State vs. Louisville Prediction: Week 6 Odds, Picks & Best Bet
Two teams coming off vastly different results a week ago meet in an ACC clash as Louisville hosts Florida State on Friday. My Florida State vs. Louisville prediction avoids the point spread, which I'd call a fishy line, and instead makes a play on the total in what should be a shootout.
Florida State is coming off its best performance of the season in a 38-7 rout of Virginia, while Louisville has lost consecutive three-point games to Wake Forest and NC State. Kickoff from L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium in Louisville, Ky., is set for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). The Cardinals are a 3.5-point betting favorite.
🏈 Florida State vs. Louisville picks & predictions
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 6 based on the latest college football odds.
| Pick | Bet size |
|---|---|
| ATS: Louisville -3.5 (-110 via BetMGM) | 1 unit to win 0.91 units |
| O/U: Over 59.5 (-105 via DraftKings) | 1 unit to win 0.95 units |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: +1.86 units
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💰 Florida State vs. Louisville prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
Over 59.5 (-105 via DraftKings)
Louisville cannot use injuries much as an excuse for its 31-28 loss to NC State, as three of its top four most questionable players heading into the game (quarterback Lincoln Kienholz, wide receiver Lawayne McCoy, and cornerback DJ Waller Jr.) all played and were effective.
Despite the injuries, Louisville still ran for an outstanding 9.2 yards per carry in the loss, while three different players had receptions of 20-plus yards in the passing game.
Meanwhile, Florida State gave Louisville an added dynamic to prepare for on a short week, as quarterback Ashton Daniels set a school record with five rushing touchdowns and a career-high 136 yards on the ground.
📡 SBR Edge: Head-to-head shootouts
Not only has the Over cashed in five of Louisville's last six games overall, but it is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Louisville between these teams.
Florida State's defense can't rely on the same pass rush
The Seminoles recorded 10 sacks in their 31-point win over Virginia, which was a big reason the Cavaliers finished with just 37 yards rushing after entering the week in the top 40 in rushing offense with 192.8 yards per game.
Louisville’s offense should pose a much bigger issue for Florida State, as it entered last week with a 50% success rate and +0.34 EPA/Play average and proceeded to score touchdowns on four of its first nine drives. The Cardinals were ultimately undone by two fumbles and a turnover on downs in that span. But the good news for Over backers is that Louisville's turnovers resulted in 17 points for the opponent.
Score prediction: Louisville 34, Florida State 30
📊 Live Florida State vs. Louisville odds
Florida State vs. Louisville opening odds
- Moneyline: Florida State +200 | Louisville -235
- Spread: Florida State +6.5 (-108) | Louisville -6.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 57.5 (-112) | Under 57.5 (-105)
📺 How to watch Florida State vs. Louisville: Week 6
- Date: Friday, Oct. 9
- Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium (Louisville, Ky.)
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: ESPN Unlimited
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