Arsenal vs. Leeds Prediction, Picks & Odds for Saturday's Premier League Match

The first international break of the season has wrapped after three long weeks and we're back with our Arsenal vs. Leeds prediction to get you started on the right foot. Coming off their first line of the season in their last Premier League action, Arsenal is a -250 betting favorite on the three-way moneyline to collect all three points. 

The action from Emirates Stadium in London gets underway at 7:30 a.m. ET, airing on USA Network and Universo.

Arsenal vs. Leeds predictions & best bets

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Arsenal vs. Leeds best bet

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Leeds Over 8.5 shots (-120)

We're unlikely to see this hit via sustained possession, but Leeds should be able to get there via transition attacks once Arsenal's full-backs push high in the attacking phase. Leeds are already averaging well above this number in the EPL season (12 shots per game) and have crossed into double-digits in all five outings. 

This is likely a game where Arsenal should dominate the ball and, in most game scenarios, is the team to score first. Provided that happens, Leeds will have to chase and push for an equalizer. 

While I expect Arsenal to tighten up defensively following their loss to Brighton ahead of the break, Dominic Calvert-Lewin and company should be able reach this reasonable volume target without needing to score. 

I don't mind a ladder on Leeds Over 9.5 shots (+137) and Leeds Over 10.5 shots (+200), but I wouldn't go beyond a quarter-unit each if that's the kind of thing you're into.

More Arsenal vs. Leeds expert picks

Arsenal to win & Under 3.5 goals (+105)

Arsenal's defensive structure and territorial control should decide this match, and I don't see it becoming a shootout. Leeds will be pinned back for long stretches, limiting their opportunities.

The Gunners have allowed just four goals through five league matches, a 0.81 xGA per match, with three of those goals coming against Brighton right before the break. And even if Leeds score one, their attack is middling (1.4 goals and 1.54 xG per game), and they're unlikely to find a second.

Arsenal doesn't need a attacking performance for this one, which cashes on 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, and 2-1 victories. I'm comfortable backing Arsenal's structural superiority and defense and fading the likelihood of a high-scoring affair.

Under 5 cards (-125)

This play is comprised of two main backing points: the discipline table and the referee. 

Arsenal and Leeds have both been booked just seven times each across five games, tied for 14th in the league. Arsenal's defensive shape often means they don't need to resort to rash emergency challenges to break up play — particularly if they can establish an early lead. With a prolonged midfield battle unlikely, the types of fouls that often pile up and lead to accumulation yellows are less likely. 

But the big kicker here is that Paul Tierney is the man in charge. He's averaged just 3.1 yellows per game over the last two seasons (well below the league average of 3.9) and tends to let a lot of fouls slide. He's shown four total yellows in his two Prem games this year, and in two of his three Championship games, he's also come in under this line. 

The game state and the referee combine to make four or fewer cards an appealing angle. 

Arsenal vs. Leeds key stats

Arsenal vs. Leeds odds

Arsenal vs. Leeds projected lineups

Here are the projected lineups for Arsenal vs. Leeds; subject to change:

How to watch Arsenal vs. Leeds

• Date: Saturday, Oct. 10
• Kickoff: 7:30 a.m. ET
• Location: Emirates Stadium (London)
• TV/Streaming: USA Network / Universo