Florida State vs. Alabama Prediction: Week 3 Odds, Picks & Best Bet
Revenge will be on No. 11 Alabama’s mind for last year’s 31-17 upset loss to Florida State, but my Florida State vs. Alabama prediction backs the road underdogs at a near three-touchdown spread while playing for a desperate head coach who is squarely on the hot seat.
Kickoff from Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Ala., is set for 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Alabama is a 19.5-point betting favorite looking to extend an 11-game winning streak in September.
🏈 Florida State vs. Alabama picks & predictions
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 3 based on the latest college football odds.
| Pick | Bet size |
|---|---|
| ATS: Florida State +19.5 (-110 via bet365) | 1 unit to win 0.91 units |
| O/U: Under 48.5 (-108 via BetMGM) | 1 unit to win 0.93 units |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 1.84 units
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
💰 Florida State vs. Alabama prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
Florida State +19.5 (-110 via bet365)
Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell wasn’t named the starter until two weeks before the season began, so it is unfair to expect him to be playing at his highest level or to his full potential two weeks in. But he is going to keep opponents in football games if he doesn’t clean up his ball security, and his three first-half turnovers were a big reason the Crimson Tide trailed Kentucky 17-13 at halftime last week.
Florida State’s quirky Labor Day game in Week 1 gave it 12 days to prepare for this matchup. It is a respectable 8-6-2 ATS against ranked opponents under Mike Norvell since 2020, and has covered 60% of its games when at a rest advantage over the last three seasons. By comparison, Alabama is just 2-5-1 ATS with a rest disadvantage in that same time frame.
Florida State got as high as +20.5 earlier in the week, so I wouldn't put anyone off waiting to see if public money on Alabama later in the week moves the line. I would play the Seminoles down to +19.
📡 SBR Edge: Bucking an ATS trend
Alabama is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games against non-AP-ranked opponents. But Florida State's chances of covering the spread are greater in a low-scoring game, which compliments the fact that the Under is 7-1 in the Seminoles' last eight games overall.
An air raid offense shies away from Alabama's identity
Alabama so far has taken the identity of a run-first offense, especially after totaling 184 rushing yards (adjusted for sacks) against its first conference opponent. But this is still an unproven rushing attack that brought in four new starters on the offensive line and a new offensive line coach after finishing 15th in the league with 104.1 yards per game on the ground last year.
Look for the Crimson Tide to be willing to attack more through the air and get away from their run-first identity, just like SMU did to Florida State when Kevin Jennings threw for a career-high 430 passing yards.
Score prediction: Alabama 28, Florida State 13
📊 Florida State vs. Alabama odds
See the latest college football odds for every Week 3 matchup.
Florida State vs. Alabama opening odds
- Moneyline: Florida State +750 | Alabama -1099
- Spread: Florida State +15.5 (-110) | Alabama -15.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 (-110) | Under 50.5 (-108)
📺 How to watch Florida State vs. Alabama: Week 3
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 19
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium (Tuscaloosa, Ala.)
- TV: ABC
- Streaming: WatchESPN
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
Related Articles
