FIU vs. Sam Houston Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 8: Will Offenses Lead to Easy Under?

Check out our FIU vs. Sam Houston prediction for their Week 8 college football matchup based on the best NCAAF odds.

As part of Wednesday's college football doubleheader, our FIU-Sam Houston prediction is based on the best college football odds from the best sports betting sites, and we wonder how low you can go with two bottom-tier offenses.

One of the FIU Panthers (3-4, 0-4 C-USA) or Sam Houston Bearkats (0-6, 0-3 C-USA) will get off the schneid by recording their first conference win of the year on Wednesday night in Conference USA action.

Both offenses rank near the bottom of offensive efficiency in the FBS, so we shouldn't expect a high-scoring affair Wednesday. The Bearkats were held to fewer than 10 points for three straight weeks to open the season and while things have improved, they're still pretty bleak. The Panthers have scored 17 or fewer points in each of their last three contests.

Here is our best FIU-Sam Houston prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

FIU vs. Sam Houston prediction 

Under 40.5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

Editor's note: The total has risen slightly at most of our best sportsbooks and now sits at 41.5.

If the metrics are to be trusted, this battle between FIU and Sam Houston could be the worst offensive matchup of the year in college football. Sam Houston is ranked 130th out of 133 FBS teams in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to the Football Power Index efficiency metrics, and is incredibly the higher-ranked of the two programs.

Despite averaging 20.7 points per game on the season (105th in FBS), FIU sits at 132nd out of 133 FBS teams in adjusted offensive efficiency. Sam Houston has faced a slightly tougher schedule due to its non-conference slate, but the team's struggling offense has averaged just 11.2 points per game.

FIU's weak defense is ranked 109th in adjusted defensive efficiency and may allow Sam Houston’s offense to put together a couple of touchdown drives. But the Bearkats should be able to limit the Panthers from contributing much to this total.

The Bearkats rank 51st in adjusted defensive efficiency across FBS. They've limited several prominent teams to modest scoring totals, including Air Force’s 14th-ranked unit in adjusted offensive efficiency. Sam Houston is 2-4 to the Under in 2023, while FIU has recorded five Unders in seven outings.

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FIU vs. Sam Houston best odds

Caesars (-110)

DraftKings FanDuel BetMGM Caesars bet365
Under 39.5 Under 40.5 n/a Under 40.5 Under 39.5
-110 -115 n/a -110 -110

DraftKings and bet365 are shops to avoid for this Under wager at current odds, as both list the total at 39.5. You gain an extra point of cushion and get the Under at 40.5 through FanDuel or Caesars.

Caesars offers the more favorable odds on the Under between the two at -110. You’ll pay -115 to take the Under at FanDuel.

FIU vs. Sam Houston odds

FIU vs. Sam Houston odds analysis

Sam Houston opened as a 6-point favorite, and that number has dropped slightly to between -5 and -5.5 through our best sportsbooks. Currently, 60% of wagers have come in on the Bearkats.

The total opened at 39.5 but has risen to 41.5 at some of our best sports betting sites. More than 55% of the wagers have come in on the Under since the market has adjusted.

FIU vs. Sam Houston game info

  • When: Wednesday, Oct. 18, 2023 at 7 p.m. ET
  • Where: Bowers Stadium, Huntsville, TX
  • How to watch: CBS Sports Network
  • Weather: 78 Degrees, 10 mph winds, 0% Precipitation

FIU-Sam Houston prediction made Monday at 4 p.m. ET.

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