Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois Prediction, Pick & Odds: Camellia Bowl
Northern Illinois and Arkansas State put the finishing touches on 6-6 campaigns when they face off Saturday in the 2023 Camellia Bowl, and we have you covered with our Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois prediction for the Camellia Bowl based on the best college football odds at the best college football betting sites.
This year's Camellia Bowl between Arkansas State (6-6) and Northern Illinois (6-6) features two teams that likely wouldn't have received postseason invitations several years ago.
Regardless, Northern Illinois opened as a slight favorite for Saturday's matchup. It continues to be the better bet ahead of kickoff despite the market oddly shifting in favor of the obviously flawed Red Wolves.
As part of our look at all college bowl game odds and our college football prop picks for Saturday, here is our best Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois prediction and our college football picks for Saturday's Camellia Bowl (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois prediction: Camellia Bowl
Northern Illinois +3 (-108 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
This game initially opened at NIU -2.5, which was in line with most projections for this game. Then came the annual circus of opt-outs and transfers, which shifted this game nearly six points in favor of Arkansas State.
That's likely a direct result of Northern Illinois' top receiver/returner Trayvon Rudolph entering the transfer portal. Yet Rudolph eventually withdrew his name and should play on Saturday, and the rest of the Huskies' transfers - aside from starting center Pete Nygra - were rotational players.
On the other side, the Red Wolves lost starting linebacker Javante Mackey (84 tackles) - a key cog in a defense that already ranked 120th in opponent yards per play (6.19) and 124th in opponent yards per game (445.5) out of 130 FBS teams.
That's even more alarming when you consider the level of competition Arkansas State faced in the Sun Belt, which has been gone 1-4 SU / 0-4-1 ATS to start bowl season. The team's only non-conference wins came against perennial doormats UMass (3-9) and Stony Brook (0-10) - during which QB Jaylen Raynor recorded seven of his 15 passing TDs before a late-season swoon.
The dual-threat freshman has been the clear catalyst for the Red Wolves' big-play offense, which ranks in the top 35 in explosive pass and run rate but 100th in success rate. That's a tough recipe against a Northern Illinois defense that ranks among the nation's best at preventing explosives and sits in the top 30 in scoring defense (21.2 PPG) and total defense (316.9 YPG).
The Huskies' offense is far from explosive, but QB Rocky Lombardi has nine TDs to one interception over his last nine games, deferring to a dominant run game led by breakout star Antario Brown (1,164 yards, 10 TDs). The junior should have a field day against Arkansas State, which ranked outside the top 100 in EPA per rush even before losing Mackey to the portal.
If there were more player props available — only DraftKings is listing any among our best sportsbooks — we'd indeed be targeting Brown's rushing total. Alas, we still like Northern Illinois' chances to control this game on both sides, so we'll gladly pocket the extra three points and make a small play on the moneyline (+136 via DraftKings).
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Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois best odds
DraftKings (-108)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIU +3 | NIU +3 | NIU +3 | NIU +3 | NIU +3 |
| -108 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
After this game opened at NIU -2.5, the market has settled into a near consensus, with four of our five best sports betting sites dealing the Huskies at an identical +3 with -110 odds.
The lone exception is DraftKings, which is offering the same line with -108 odds. That serves as another reminder that it pays to shop around, and it's worth checking out our best sportsbook promos to ensure you're getting the most out of each wager.
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Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois odds
Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois odds analysis
As mentioned earlier, Northern Illinois opened as a 2.5-point favorite but has shifted to +3, which is the side we'd recommend backing in this year's Camellia Bowl.
The total has been bet up from an opening 49.5 to 53.5 across our best sports betting apps. The Over is compelling given the defensive woes for Arkansas State, though Northern Illinois' run-heavy approach could limit the overall volume of plays we can expect on Saturday.
Camellia Bowl game info
- When: Saturday, Dec. 23 at noon ET
- Where: Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, AL
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 57 degrees, 5-mph wind, 0% chance of precipitation
Arkansas State-Northern Illinois prediction made Wednesday at 11:20 p.m. ET.
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