Alabama vs. LSU Picks, Predictions College Football Week 10: Can Tigers Cover at Home?
Supremacy in the SEC West Division will be on the line Saturday night when the Alabama Crimson Tide travel to Death Valley to face the LSU Tigers. Check out our top Alabama-LSU picks.
After suffering its first loss of the season to Tennessee, Alabama (5-3 ATS, 3-5 O/U) got back on track two weeks ago with a dominant home win over Mississippi State. Fresh off a bye, the Crimson Tide now face the inevitable task of needing to beat Top-11 teams on the road in back-to-back games.
A number of people were surprised that LSU (5-3 ATS, 3-5 O/U) earned the No. 10 spot in the first edition of the College Football Playoff Rankings released earlier this week. The Tigers certainly come in with momentum after surpassing 40 points in wins over Florida and Ole Miss prior to last week’s bye.
Here are our college football betting picks for the Week 10 matchup between Alabama and LSU (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).
Check out our college football best bets and all of our top picks for Week 10.
Alabama vs. LSU Game Info
Date: Saturday, Nov. 5, 7 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
Weather: 69 degrees, 76.2% chance of precipitation, 1-2 mph winds NW
Alabama vs. LSU Odds
Alabama vs. LSU Odds Analysis
Oddsmakers first opened Alabama as a 12-point favorite for this matchup. It may come as a surprise to some to learn that the market has moved the spread higher in favor of the Crimson Tide since then. Virtually all major sportsbooks are currently listing a line of Alabama -13.5.
While the spread has increased relative to the opening number, the betting percentages for this game actually show a very even ticket count. At DraftKings Sportsbook, LSU has actually taken a 55% majority of all ATS bets as a double-digit underdog. However, Alabama has accounted for 58% of the handle wagered on the point spread thus far.
As for the total, the market consensus has come down 1.5 points after opening up around 58 at most shops. Once again, we find a scenario in which the line move to the Under goes against the court of public opinion. At DraftKings, more than 80% of all bets are on the Over.
Alabama vs. LSU Picks
Alabama vs. LSU ATS Pick
LSU +13.5 (-110) ★★
One of the big questions coming into this game is how much LSU has actually improved offensively relative to the start of the season. The Tigers were certainly impressive in scoring 45 and 42 points against Florida and Ole Miss, respectively. However, neither of those teams has a defense the caliber of Alabama’s.
Of course, the decisive weakness of Nick Saban’s defense this year is the secondary. Alabama has struggled to defend opposing passing attacks on multiple occasions this season. Most notably, the Crimson Tide allowed nearly 400 yards and five touchdowns through the air to Tennessee in their only loss.
To be fair, LSU doesn’t have quite the same level of wide receiver talent as Tennessee. What the Tigers do have that could cause some major problems for Alabama is a true dual-threat quarterback by the name of Jayden Daniels. His ability to extend plays outside of the pocket and keep the defense honest could prove critical in opening things up down the field.
While LSU is not a defensive juggernaut this year, the Tigers do come in ranked 19th in the country in adjusted efficiency. The front seven has plenty of talent, and the onus will be on that group to contain Jahmyr Gibbs and the Alabama rushing attack.
Given how well they managed to slow down a top-five Ole Miss ground game last week, one has to give LSU a shot at holding its own in the trenches. With a raucous home crowd expected, the Tigers should be able to do enough to keep the final score within two touchdowns.
Alabama vs. LSU O/U Pick
Under 56.5 (-110) ★★★
Given what both teams have proven capable of offensively this season, playing the Under for Saturday’s contest certainly has a contrarian feel to it. The public ticket counts only reinforce that narrative.
One of the major differences between this year’s version of the Crimson Tide compared to previous seasons is the lack of game-changers at the wide receiver position. Players like Jermaine Burton and Ja’Corey Brooks are both talented, but living up to Alabama’s recent receiver rooms is easier said than done.
On the other side of the ball, it could prove to be a real struggle on the ground for LSU. For all of Alabama’s issues in the secondary, the Tide have been lights out against the run, allowing only 93.9 yards per game. Daniels has already shown glimpses of what he is capable of as a passer, both this season and in prior years while at Arizona State.
Attacking the Crimson Tide through the air will be vital for LSU. When it comes to the game total, however, the fact that the Tigers could be forced to be relatively one-dimensional on offense doesn’t necessarily bode well for a ton of points being scored.
Alabama vs. LSU Prop Pick
Daniels Over 215.5 passing yards (-114) ★★★
Our game prop selection looks to capitalize on the handicapping angle discussed above. With the assumption that Alabama’s defense can suffocate the LSU rushing attack, the onus will be on Daniels to make plays through the air.
For all intents and purposes, this game could really turn into a showcase for Daniels as a passing threat. Much has been made about his rushing abilities, but many have yet to witness just what he is capable of through the air.
To their credit, the Crimson Tide have held the majority of opposing quarterbacks below this prop line of 215.5 passing yards. However, Alabama has also yet to face many quality passing teams. Even SEC foes like Arkansas and Texas A&M aren’t exactly known for their passing attacks this season.
Where to Bet on Alabama vs. LSU Picks
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
Alabama-LSU picks made 11/4/2022 at 1 p.m. ET
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